The Balkan Crisis

August 1, 2025 became the day when two parallel political crises in the Balkans reached a new boiling point. In Belgrade, prosecutors arrested six high-ranking officials in a corruption case related to the reconstruction of the railway station in Novi Sad, where 16 people died in November 2024. On the same day in Sarajevo, an appeals court upheld the sentence against Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik - one year in prison and six years of political activity ban for separatist actions.

These events are taking place against the backdrop of the largest protests in Serbia in decades. What began as a student action after the Novi Sad tragedy has grown over nine months into a nationwide movement, encompassing more than 400 cities and mobilizing over 355,000 people. The regime of Aleksandar Vučić, who has ruled the country for 13 years, has faced the most serious challenge in its entire history.

The Tragedy That Triggered an Avalanche

On November 1, 2024, at 11:52, a concrete canopy collapsed at the recently reconstructed Novi Sad railway station. 16 people died under the rubble, including children. The station had been ceremoniously opened just four months earlier, in July 2024, after a massive reconstruction costing 943 million euros.

The reconstruction project of the Novi Sad - Subotica railway line was part of a larger initiative to connect the capitals of Serbia and Hungary. The work was carried out by a consortium of Chinese companies China Railway International Co. and China Communications Construction Company (CRIC-CCCC) as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The contract was signed back in July 2018, and the work itself began in November 2021.

The tragedy immediately triggered a wave of outrage. Already on November 3, the first protests began in Novi Sad. People accused the authorities of corruption and negligence, demanding the publication of all reconstruction documents and punishment of those responsible. By December, the protests had grown into a student uprising - young people began occupying universities and blocking roads.

Corruption and the Collapse of the Chinese Project

On August 1, 2025, prosecutors arrested six officials, including former minister Tomislav Momirović. They inflated bills from the Chinese consortium China Railway International Co. and China Communications Construction Company from 943 million euros to 1.214 billion dollars. The damage to the budget amounts to 115.6 million dollars. (Reuters, SeeNews)

This is the second wave of arrests - in December 2024, 11 people were detained. Both ministers - Momirović and Goran Vesić - members of Vučić's ruling party, resigned. In March 2025, the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) began investigating possible misuse of EU funds.(Return of the Silk Road - Covalent Bond). The station, ceremoniously opened in July 2024, became a grave for 16 people four months later.

Student Uprising: From Universities to National Mobilization

Over nine months, a local protest in Novi Sad transformed into the largest movement in the history of modern Serbia - more than 355,000 participants in 400+ cities. (Wikipedia)

Students of the Faculty of Dramatic Arts in Belgrade were the first to begin a blockade in late November 2024 after an attack on protesters. (European Western Balkans) They were joined by teachers, farmers, lawyers, doctors - the broadest coalition since the fall of Milošević.

The protesters developed clear demands:

1. Full publication of all documents related to the reconstruction of the station in Novi Sad

2. Dropping all charges against arrested protesters

3. Criminal prosecution of those who attacked students from November 2024

4. Increase in higher education budget by at least 20%

Dušan Spasojević, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences of Belgrade University, explains the reasons for the mass nature of the protests: "The reason these protests have gained such momentum is the lack of political accountability in Serbia over the past decade. The collapse of the railway station canopy was simply too great a tragedy for citizens to accept without a serious reaction." (European Western Balkans)

Elena Vasiljevic, senior research fellow at the Institute of Philosophy and Social Theory, adds: "Public frustration has been building up for years due to a series of scandals and tragedies for which no one has been held accountable. We are witnessing a complete failure of institutions, with the ruling party effectively taking over the state. These protests represent an outburst of accumulated discontent that has now exploded in the wake of this tragedy." (European Western Balkans)

The protest methods were distinguished by creativity and persistence. Every day at exactly 11:52 - the exact time of the canopy collapse - 16-minute road blockades took place across the country in memory of the victims. (Deutsche Welle) Students occupied university buildings, turning them into centers of resistance. Solidarity marches were organized between cities.

On January 24, 2025, a nationwide strike took place, supported by teachers' unions. Enterprises across Serbia closed their doors, many schools stopped working. Protest marches took place not only in Belgrade and Novi Sad, but also in the southern city of Niš and smaller towns, including Jagodina. (Deutsche Welle)

On February 1-2, 2025, students conducted the "Three Months, Three Bridges" action in Novi Sad. Hundreds of students completed an 80-kilometer march from Belgrade to Novi Sad over two days, then blocked three main bridges of the city, including a 24-hour blockade of the Freedom Bridge. (RFE/RL) Kilometer-long traffic jams paralyzed traffic in the city of 380,000 inhabitants.

"I don't think anything like this has ever happened in Novi Sad before. And I am certain that Gen Z will bring change because I believe in all these young people," said law student Nedeljka Mijanović. (RFE/RL)

On December 22, 2024, the largest protest in Belgrade's history took place - more than 100,000 people took to the streets. (Wikipedia) This became the most massive demonstration in Serbia since the fall of Slobodan Milošević's regime in 2000.

On January 28, 2025, a turning point occurred. After an attack by members of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) on a female student in Novi Sad, Prime Minister Miloš Vučević was forced to resign - an unprecedented case in Serbia's recent history. (European Western Balkans) President Vučić stated that he accepted the resignation "reluctantly," since, according to him, Vučević "did nothing wrong." (RFE/RL)

The culmination of the winter protest movement was the march in Kragujevac on February 15, 2025 - on Serbia's Statehood Day, a historically significant date marking the First Serbian Uprising of 1804 and the adoption of the country's first constitution in 1835. (European Western Balkans)

About 400 students from universities in Belgrade, Niš and Novi Sad walked 140 kilometers from the capital to Kragujevac over four days. In Kragujevac itself, tens of thousands of local residents joined them. The protesters blocked the city's main boulevard for 16 hours - one hour in memory of each victim of the tragedy.

Local resident Slavica Nikolić shared: "After long time, we can feel positive energy in the air, on the streets, among the people. When I talk to people, it feels like hope has woken up. We remember well some uglier times. This is finally some sort of new hope, that something good is going to happen in this country." (RFE/RL)

"We are here to fight for a better tomorrow, against corruption," declared 20-year-old student Jovan, who came from Belgrade. (Reuters)

"I have not been so happy and proud for a long time," admitted 52-year-old professor Verica from Kragujevac, who came to the protest with her teenage daughter. (Reuters)

"15 for 15": The Largest Protest in Serbia's History

According to police data, more than 100 thousand people took to the capital's streets. (Serbia's largest anti-government protest took place - Novaya Gazeta Europe). Serbian independent media claimed that there were many more participants. The largest rally in Serbia's history in Belgrade on March 15 gathered about 300 thousand protesters.

On March 15, 2025, a rally took place in Belgrade that went down in history as the largest anti-government demonstration in modern Serbia. The action received the symbolic name "15 for 15" (Serbian: 15. za 15), which became a symbol of the protesters' intention to link their march with honoring the memory of the 15 victims of the Novi Sad station tragedy. (The largest protest "15 for 15" in Serbia concluded - Covalent Bond).

Preparation for the rally began long before March 15. Until midnight of the preceding day, Friday March 14, students and supporting citizens arrived in the capital from numerous cities on motorcycles, bicycles and on foot. About 31 thousand protesting students gathered in Belgrade even a day before the announced large street action on March 15.

The authorities took unprecedented measures to limit participation in the rally. On the same day, all public passenger transport to Belgrade was canceled. Railway trains were canceled with reference to an anonymous phone call the previous night warning of possible mining of some flights. Bus services were canceled, according to employees, for "safety" reasons. (The largest protest "15 for 15" in Serbia concluded - Covalent Bond). Several journalists from neighboring Croatia and Slovenia were turned back at the Serbian border, told that their presence at the rally "poses a security threat." (Euronews).

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić repeatedly warned about danger and violence on Saturday, March 15, in the days preceding the event. Vučić's main theses were: "the gathering is not legitimate," "...as long as I live - I will not allow a provisional government to exist," as well as "it is impossible to avoid violence at the upcoming protest, but all rioters will be arrested." (The largest protest "15 for 15" in Serbia concluded - Covalent Bond)

The protest proceeded peacefully throughout Saturday. The March 15 demonstration began at Branko's Bridge across the Sava River, which serves as the boundary of the capital's center, and stretches 2.5 kilometers to Slavija Square. Large crowds of protesters with flags filled the central part of the capital, despite periodic rain. Among the demonstrators was former Yugoslav president and Serbian prime minister Vojislav Koštunica. (Novaya Gazeta Europe)

The Sound Weapon Incident

However, during the fifteen-minute silence that became a permanent attribute of student protests, 2 minutes before its end (7PM GMT+1), a simultaneous and rapid reaction of protesters was captured on video, looking like chaotic rushing of each person individually. According to N1 reports, this may involve the use of non-lethal sonic weapons designed to "disable" necessary targets and render them incapacitated. (The largest protest "15 for 15" in Serbia concluded - Covalent Bond)

Many witnesses described their condition as a feeling that something like a car or other object was rapidly approaching them, from which they were trying to dodge. The non-governmental organization "Belgrade Center for Human Rights" reported a large number of people seeking help with similar symptoms, according to Radio Free Europe.

This may involve LRAD (Long Range Acoustic Device) - a device used in sieges, crowd control, maritime navigation or to protect critical infrastructure. Such devices can be narrowly directed and widely directed, short-range (300-600 meters) and long-range (up to 5 km) and use a frequency range of about 2-4 kHz. The power of sound emitted near the device can reach 160 or more dB, leading to irreversible hearing damage.

Apart from this incident, the rally was not without other incidents. A man who allegedly claimed to have bombs was detained by plain-clothes police. (Euronews) A car rammed into a crowd of protesters, the 50-year-old driver was detained.

Government Response

At a press conference, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić pointed to "enormous negative energy, anger and rage towards the authorities," describing the concluded protest. Despite the fact that the authorities in Serbia assess the protests as an "attempt" at a "color revolution," Vučić also noted that the majority of citizens do not want a "color revolution," and "99% of students do not want incidents." (The largest protest "15 for 15" in Serbia concluded - Covalent Bond)

The president stated that the number of injured amounts to 56 people, and the number of detained - 22. Additionally, it was said that the authorities "understood the message," and "all people in power should understand the message when such a number of people gather. They should change themselves."

One of the protest participants, Dejan Simić, expressed the demonstrators' sentiments:

"This is only the beginning of the end, a process that, I hope, will soon be over." (Euronews)

The March 15 rally became the culmination of a months-long protest movement and demonstrated an unprecedented scale of dissatisfaction with Vučić's regime. However, as subsequent events showed, by mid-spring it seemed that the latest wave of student protests had lost momentum and was gradually subsiding. While the largest rally in Serbia's history in Belgrade on March 15 gathered about 300 thousand protesters, only 18 thousand people attended the demonstration on May 1. (Novaya Gazeta Europe)

Vidovdan 2025: Symbolic Battle for Serbia's Future

June 28, 2025 - Vidovdan (St. Vitus Day) - a historically significant date for Serbs, connected with the Battle of Kosovo in 1389, turned into a new point of consolidation for civil protest. (Vidovdan: a rallying point for civil protest in Serbia - Covalent Bond)

On the eve of Vidovdan, the authorities took preventive intimidation measures. The Ministry of Interior's anti-terrorist unit arrested Faculty of Physics student Stevan Tomić, charging him with terrorism - an unprecedented step that human rights defenders called an act of informational pressure. Professor Medenica commented: "This is a clear act of informational pressure. The real message from the authorities to citizens: don't come to Belgrade on Vidovdan. Numbers are important to them - they fear large gatherings of people." (Vidovdan: a rallying point for civil protest in Serbia - Covalent Bond)

Despite the pressure, the mass action took place. The protest began in the afternoon at Slavija Square in Belgrade, from where a multitude column headed to the city center. Participants carried Serbian flags and placards with portraits of the 16 victims of the Novi Sad collapse. According to police data, about 36,000 people participated in the action, however independent observers estimated the number of protesters at 140,000. (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond)

The key moment was 16 minutes of silence in memory of the tragedy victims. One of the students read a symbolic statement: "Today, June 28, 2025, we declare the current government illegitimate." (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond)

Around 21:00 the action was officially concluded, however after that clashes occurred near Pioneer Park. Police used tear gas, journalists from Fonet and N1 agencies were injured. (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond)

On June 29, protests continued with renewed force. Demonstrators blocked key Belgrade transport arteries, including the bridge over the Sava, setting up barricades from garbage containers and street barriers. At least 38 people were detained by police during the day. The total number of arrested over the weekend reached 77 people. Protests spread to other cities, including Novi Sad. (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond)

President Vučić accused protest participants of attempting a coup d'état and spoke of "external interference and incitement from outside." Interior Minister Ivica Dačić warned that police would act "by all legal means." Internal troops were put on full alert, security of administrative buildings and TV channels was strengthened. (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond)

It's important to note the transformation of the protest movement. While initially it focused on the Novi Sad tragedy, by summer 2025 the agenda had expanded: protecting university autonomy, fighting corruption in infrastructure projects, demanding early parliamentary elections. Vidovdan symbolism received new content - from a day of remembrance of a medieval battle, it turned into a day of modern struggle for democratic values.

Academic Resistance: Professors Join Students

Parallel to student protests, a university faculty movement unfolded. From June 8 to 25, 2025, professors from Serbia's leading universities - Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš - held a 17-day round-the-clock vigil near the government building called "Faculties at the Crossroads." (Vidovdan: a rallying point for civil protest in Serbia - Covalent Bond)

The protest was directed against a new version of the regulation on academic standards, which, according to the professors, undermines university autonomy and complicates scientific certification. After 17 days of protest, the professors voluntarily dismantled the tent camp but announced joining student actions on Vidovdan.

"Institutions again failed to do their job. But we don't give up. We're just changing the format of protest," declared one of the movement's coordinators. (Vidovdan: a rallying point for civil protest in Serbia - Covalent Bond)

The main demands of the academic community included:

• Rejection of the new version of the regulation on academic standards

• Cessation of pressure on teachers and students

• Protection of university autonomy

• Inadmissibility of politicization of the educational sphere

Political Earthquake: Vučić's Regime Under Threat

Mass protests dealt a devastating blow to the political system built by Vučić over 13 years of rule. For the first time during this period, the authorities were forced to make serious concessions. In addition to the prime minister's resignation, two more ministers resigned. The prosecutor's office brought charges against 13 people in connection with the Novi Sad tragedy.

However, these measures did not calm the protesters. Daily actions continue, students still control universities, and road blockades have become a common phenomenon of Serbian life. "We want to be able to continue our studies but only when our demands are met," declared 22-year-old mechanical engineering student Đorđe Vujović. (Reuters)

Vučić's reaction to the protests was predictable - he accused the demonstrators of attempting to "destroy Serbia" and hinted at support for the protests by unnamed Western countries. "Their goal is not to topple Vucic, but to bring down Serbia," the president declared at a counter-rally in Sremska Mitrovica on February 15, where supporters were brought not only from Serbia, but also from Republika Srpska in Bosnia. (Reuters)

The government announced the launch of an anti-corruption campaign and denies corruption allegations. However, trust in the authorities has been so undermined that these statements are perceived skeptically even by traditional regime supporters.

Parallel Crisis: Dodik's Sentence and Bosnia's Split

On the same day when corruptors were being arrested in Belgrade, the appeals court of Bosnia and Herzegovina confirmed the sentence against Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik in Sarajevo. One year in prison (which under Bosnian law can be replaced by a fine) and six years of political activity ban - such is the punishment for ignoring Constitutional Court decisions and the international peace representative. (AP News)

Dodik, a pro-Russian nationalist, has for years advocated for Republika Srpska's separation from Bosnia and joining Serbia. He systematically sabotages the work of central government institutions and refuses to comply with decisions of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which monitors compliance with the 1995 Dayton Agreement that ended the bloody war.

Dodik's reaction was defiant: "I do not accept the verdict. I will seek help from Russia and I will write a letter to the U.S. administration." (Reuters)

He promised to continue working as president of Republika Srpska while he has the support of the local parliament, and ordered his associates not to communicate with EU ambassadors.

Dodik's lawyer Goran Bubić announced his intention to appeal the decision to the Constitutional Court and seek a stay of execution. Meanwhile, in Republika Srpska, the legislative assembly at Dodik's initiative banned the activities of Bosnia and Herzegovina's prosecutor's office, court and intelligence service on its territory - an unprecedented step that effectively means legal separatism.

The European Union reacted harshly: "The verdict is binding and must be respected. The EU calls on all parties to acknowledge the independence and impartiality of the court, and to respect and uphold its verdict." (RFE/RL)

As a preventive measure, European peacekeepers deployed reserve forces in Bosnia. (Reuters)

Historical Context: Ghosts of the Past

The crisis around Dodik is not just a legal case, but a threat to the entire architecture of peace in the Balkans. The 1992-1995 war in Bosnia claimed about 100,000 lives and led to the displacement of millions. It began when Bosnian Serbs rebelled against Bosnia's independence from Yugoslavia and tried to create their own state to unite with Serbia.

The Dayton Agreement, signed with US mediation in 1995, created a complex system of two autonomous entities - the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosniak-Croat) and Republika Srpska - under a weak central government. The country received a three-headed presidency (Bosniak, Serb, Croat) and a system of checks and balances designed to prevent the dominance of one ethnic group.

This system worked with varying success for 30 years, but Dodik's actions threaten its final collapse. He is under US and UK sanctions precisely for attempts to undermine the Dayton Agreement. (RFE/RL) His conflict with international representative Christian Schmidt, who under the Dayton Agreement has the right to make binding decisions and change laws, has been going on for several years.

International Dimension: Geopolitical Chessboard

Both crises - Serbian and Bosnian - have an important international dimension. The European Prosecutor's Office investigation adds another level of complexity - the EU cannot ignore abuse of its funds in a candidate country for membership.

Russia actively supports Dodik, seeing him as an instrument of regional destabilization and opposition to the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Balkans. Dodik's appeal to Moscow and the Trump administration shows his strategy - playing on great power contradictions.

The EU found itself in a difficult position. On one hand, Brussels cannot allow Bosnia's collapse and a new conflict in the Balkans. On the other - instruments of influence are limited. Deploying additional peacekeepers is more of a symbolic gesture than real force.

What's Next: Development Scenarios

The corruption investigation will deepen, especially given EPPO involvement. This may lead to new arrests and revelations, further undermining the regime's legitimacy. Chinese companies will likely face reputational losses and contract revisions.

In Bosnia, the situation is even more explosive. Dodik has cornered himself - retreat would mean political death, and escalation could lead to new conflict. Much will depend on Belgrade's position. Vučić, fighting for survival at home, is unlikely to want to open a second front by supporting Dodik's separatism.

The international community will be forced to intervene more actively. The EU may tighten sanctions and increase military presence. The US under the Trump administration may take a tougher stance toward pro-Russian forces in the Balkans. Russia will continue to support Dodik, but its capabilities are limited by geography and resources.

New Generation Against the Old System

An important feature of current protests has been the leadership of a completely new generation of activists. Elena Vasiljevic notes: "These students represent an entirely new generation expressing itself politically for the first time, making it easier for many citizens to identify with them. Many of them may not have even voted yet—they are still shaping their political and social identities." (European Western Balkans)

This is Generation Z, raised in the era of social media and globalization, using fundamentally different methods of organization and communication. They avoid traditional party politics, focusing on specific demands without ideological coloring. Professor Spasojević emphasizes: "Opposition parties have not gained significant traction, and trade unions have lost the trust of many workers. Students have stepped into this vacuum, maintaining an open stance while focusing exclusively on clear demands without engaging in ideological or other divisive issues. This has been crucial in broadening support for the movement." (European Western Balkans)

Historical parallels with the 1968 student protests and anti-Milošević demonstrations of the 1990s are inevitable. Vasiljevic notes: "Students have played a crucial role in articulating political discontent at key moments in Serbian history. Many people believe they could fulfil that role once again today." (European Western Balkans)

Crisis of Representation and Institutional Failure

The protests revealed a deep crisis of representation in Serbian society. Traditional mechanisms of political participation - parties, unions, civil organizations - have lost public trust. Spasojević characterizes the situation as a complete system failure: "The nature of the incident made it easier than previous protest waves to link the tragedy directly to corruption and the complete lack of oversight and accountability." (European Western Balkans)

Mass protests in Serbia showed that civil society is not dead. The young generation, raised in relative peace and connected to Europe, is not ready to tolerate corruption and authoritarianism.

The firm position of the Bosnian court in Dodik's case demonstrates that justice institutions still function despite pressure. EU support, though limited, gives hope that Bosnia will not be left alone with its demons.

International Reaction and Geopolitical Consequences

Protests in Serbia attracted international community attention. The European Union closely monitors developments, especially after the European Prosecutor's Office began investigating corruption in the use of EU funds in the Novi Sad station reconstruction project in March 2025.

For China, the tragedy became a serious blow to its image. Beijing found itself in a difficult position - open support for a corrupt regime would undermine reputation, while refusing support could lead to loss of influence in the Balkans.

Russia, traditionally supporting Vučić, also took a wait-and-see position. Moscow cannot afford to lose an ally in the Balkans, but open support for repression against protesters would negatively affect Russia's image in the region.

The US under the Trump administration so far refrains from a clear position, although Dodik from Republika Srpska has already announced his intention to write a letter to the American administration. This shows that Balkan politicians are counting on more active Washington involvement in regional processes.

Economic Consequences: From Blockades to Systemic Crisis

Daily road blockades, strikes and protests cause serious damage to Serbia's economy. According to unofficial estimates, losses from protest activity have already exceeded hundreds of millions of euros. Particularly affected were:

• Transport sector: daily 16-minute blockades and periodic long road closures paralyze logistics

• Education: university occupation disrupts the educational process

• Tourism: negative news deters potential tourists

• Investment: political instability forces investors to reconsider plans

Chinese investments are of particular concern. After the Novi Sad corruption scandal, other major infrastructure projects with Chinese company participation came under question. This could lead to revision or even cancellation of billion-dollar contracts.

Media War and Information Confrontation

The information space became an important front of confrontation. State media, controlled by the authorities, present protesters as "Western agents" and "enemies of Serbia." In response, students actively use social media to disseminate information and coordinate actions.

The incident on June 28, 2025, when journalists from independent media Fonet and N1 were injured by police actions during Vidovdan protests, was revealing. (Symbol, street and baton - Covalent Bond) This caused protests from journalistic organizations and intensified regime criticism from international human rights organizations.

Students created their own media platforms, broadcasting protests live and disseminating information bypassing state censorship. This allowed them to maintain control over the narrative and prevent authorities from monopolizing the information space.

Split in the Ruling Elite

The arrests of Momirović and Vesić - close associates of Vučić - revealed deep contradictions within the ruling elite. The president is ready to sacrifice even his closest allies to preserve power, which weakens the regime from within.

Conclusion

Serbian protests, which began as a reaction to the Novi Sad tragedy, have grown into a broad movement for democratic change. The parallel crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, related to Milorad Dodik's separatist actions, adds instability to the region.

The protests revealed deep problems in Serbian society: corruption permeating all levels of power; the failure of Chinese investments that turned into tragedy; the crisis of traditional political institutions; the generational and value gap.

But they also showed the strength of civil society, the young generation's capacity for self-organization, people's readiness to fight for their rights despite repression. It is symbolic that Vidovdan - a day of historical tragedy - turned into a day of modern struggle for dignity and justice.

Will the Balkans be able to overcome the legacy of authoritarianism and corruption? Will the new generation succeed in building a democratic society? Can the region avoid new conflicts and find a path to stable development? The answers to these questions will determine not only the future of Serbia and Bosnia, but the entire Balkan region for decades to come.