August 8, 2025: Deadline Expired, Alaska Meeting Scheduled

August 8, 2025, the world faced an unprecedented situation in the history of economic sanctions. On this day, the ultimatum that US President Donald Trump had issued to Russia expired: either an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, or large-scale secondary sanctions against all countries continuing to buy Russian oil. (BBC)

However, instead of announcing new harsh sanctions, on the evening of August 8, Trump unexpectedly announced a meeting with Vladimir Putin, which will take place on August 15 in Alaska. "The highly anticipated meeting between myself, as President of the United States of America, and President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, will take place next Friday, August 15, 2025, in the Great State of Alaska," Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social. (The Guardian)

Initially, Trump had set a 50-day deadline for achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, in late July, frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations, the American president sharply shortened the deadline, setting it for Friday, August 8. (The Guardian) This decision caught many participants in the international energy market off guard and caused feverish diplomatic activity in world capitals.

India - First Victim of New Sanctions Policy

Not waiting for the deadline to expire, on August 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25 percent tariff on all goods imported from India. (White House) These measures will take effect on August 27, bringing the total tariff on Indian goods to 50% - one of the highest levels ever imposed by the United States against a major economy.

In an official White House statement published the same day, it states: "The President found that India is currently importing Russian Federation oil. Accordingly, to address the national emergency stemming from the Government of the Russian Federation's actions taken against Ukraine, he is imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, effective August 27, due to India's direct or indirect importation of Russian Federation oil."

Trump did not hide his indignation at India's actions. In his statement, he emphasized: "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits... Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA."

Economic Consequences for India

According to analysts, in fiscal year 2025, India imported Russian oil worth $50.3 billion, representing more than a third of its total crude oil import bill of $143.1 billion. (Times of India) This makes India the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China.

US sanctions are particularly painful for India, given that in 2025, oil consumption growth in the country is projected to exceed that of China, accounting for 25% of total global oil consumption growth. (CNBC)

The Indian government has already stated its determination to continue purchasing Russian oil despite Trump's threats. Government sources told Reuters that India will "do what needs to be done" to ensure its energy security, which is a "top priority." (Reuters)

China - Main Target, but Most Difficult Goal

China remains the largest buyer of Russian oil, accounting for 32% of Russian oil exports in 2024, totaling approximately $219.5 billion since the EU boycott began. (AP News) This makes China a key player in any attempt to economically isolate Russia.

However, imposing sanctions against China presents a much more complex task for the Trump administration than pressuring India. US imports from China are five times greater than imports from India, and a significant portion of these imports consists of consumer goods such as toys, clothing, and electronics. (BBC)

Professor Simon Evenett from IMD business school warns: "This type of over-escalation is unlikely to impress the Chinese." He explains that it will be "very difficult" to separate the Chinese from the Russians without good reason, given how closely Presidents Xi and Putin have worked together in recent years.

Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, notes that if India receives punishment while China - the largest buyer of the majority of Russian crude oil - does not, Russian oil trade could simply go even deeper underground. (The Guardian)

Risks to US-China Trade Relations

Secondary tariffs aimed at Beijing also risk derailing much broader trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies, which Trump has been conducting since his first presidential term. (BBC)

On August 7, Trump warned that he might impose additional tariffs on China, similar to the 25% duties announced earlier for India, for buying Russian oil, "depending on what happens." (Reuters)

The last time Trump attempted to use triple-digit tariffs against China, he discovered that it didn't work - it almost completely stopped trade between the two countries. Another similar move could intensify inflationary pressure in the US, which Trump has long promised to combat, and could also cost a huge number of manufacturing jobs in China at a time when its economy is already struggling on several fronts.

Other Countries Under Threat: Turkey, Brazil and Residual EU Imports

Turkey - Strategic Partner in a Difficult Position

Turkey, a NATO member, finds itself in a particularly delicate position. Since sanctions were imposed against Russia, the country has imported Russian energy worth $90.3 billion, becoming the third-largest buyer after China and India. (AP News)

For Turkey, which is a strategic US partner within NATO, potential secondary sanctions create a serious dilemma. On one hand, the country depends on Russian energy for its economy, on the other - it cannot afford a break with Western allies.

Brazil - Latin American Buyer in the Crosshairs

Brazil has also made it onto the list of countries threatened with secondary sanctions. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker directly named Brazil among the countries against which sanctions might be imposed. He stated on Tuesday: "Secondary sanctions and tariffs against China, India and Brazil, which buy Russian oil, are the obvious next step in an attempt to stop the conflict."

European Union - Residual Imports Create Problems

Despite the official boycott of Russian oil introduced after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU continues to import some Russian energy. According to the Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, the EU remains among the largest buyers of Russian energy. (BBC)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged the problem in June 2025, stating: "Russia has repeatedly attempted to blackmail us by weaponizing its energy supplies." The EU plans to completely stop importing Russian energy by the end of 2027.

Trade relations between the US and EU are the largest in the world, and the parties have just agreed on new trade conditions that provide for a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US. Many in the EU criticized this deal, saying that tariffs would harm European exporters. (BBC)

Now they also fear that secondary sanctions on the EU could cause even greater damage. Adding 100% tariffs for buying Russian energy could significantly reduce the volume of goods sold by the EU to the US. However, the largest sellers are pharmaceuticals and equipment, which may be difficult to obtain from other sources - meaning Americans would have no choice but to pay more.

Economic Consequences: From Russia to Global Markets

Russian Economy Under Pressure

Despite the apparent resilience of the Russian economy, which demonstrated 4% growth in 2023 and 2024 and maintains unemployment at 2%, signs of strain are becoming increasingly evident. (The Guardian)

Key indicators of economic pressure on Russia include:

• Federal budget deficit reached 3.7 trillion rubles ($40.4 billion) in the first half of 2025 - this is 97% of the target for the entire year of 3.8 trillion rubles. This is more than five times the deficit in the first half of 2024 and 57% higher than the largest deficit in the first six months in recent years (2023).

  
  

• Interest rates are at 18%, indicating the Central Bank of Russia's attempts to contain inflation.

  
  

• Inflation remains stubbornly high despite tight monetary policy.

  
  

• Oil export revenues are projected at $163 billion in 2025, which is 16% lower than $189 billion in 2024, and a further decline to $151 billion is expected in 2026.

  
  

Russia's state revenues from oil and gas in May-June were 35% lower than in the same period of 2024. Oil prices are unlikely to recover significantly, meaning Russia will miss its budget target by a large margin, increasing dependence on the National Welfare Fund (NWF) and domestic debt issuance.

Liquid assets of the NWF are also under pressure, and Russia is expected to actively use these reserves by the end of the year. In such a case, there is a risk that Russia "could slide into recession."

The general reason is simple: the level of military spending, including the cost of voluntary recruitment, distorts the economy. Economist Janis Kluge, who conducts research on Russia at the Berlin analytical center SWP, believes that Russia's total military spending amounts to 8 to 10% of GDP, if all expenses are taken into account.

Impact on Global Oil Prices

Kieran Tompkins from Capital Economics notes: "The key channel by which secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy could impact the global economy would be through the level of energy prices."

If tariffs work, they will reduce the flow of Russian oil and gas to global markets. With less supply, prices could rise, as happened when Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This led to a surge in inflation worldwide.

However, President Trump states that he is not concerned due to record oil production in the US. Tompkins points out that this time there are other reasons to assume that the impact on prices will not be as noticeable. He explains that "the current background is a situation where OPEC+ [a group of major oil-producing countries and their allies] has significant spare capacity that can be used."

Shadow Fleet and Sanctions Evasion

Russia has developed an entire system for circumventing existing sanctions, which could be useful for helping its trading partners avoid the secondary tariffs threatened by Trump. For example, its so-called "shadow fleet" - consisting of hundreds of tankers with unclear ownership - can be used to hide the origin of exported Russian oil and gas.

Richard Nephew, a US sanctions expert from Columbia University, says: "Sanctions maintenance is as big a task as the imposition of sanctions in the first place." This is because the sanctioned party takes steps to circumvent them.

In recent months, as oil prices have fallen, it has become obvious that the ceiling of $60 per barrel was set too high. The ceiling also led to the emergence of a shadow fleet of oil tankers operating without official insurance, which now fall under EU, US and UK sanctions.

Last-Minute Negotiations: From Witkoff's Mission to Alaska Meeting

Despite the expiring deadline and harsh rhetoric, the Trump administration has not abandoned attempts at a diplomatic solution. On August 6, US Presidential Special Representative Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow for the fifth time for last-minute negotiations with Russian leadership. (The Guardian)

On August 7, Witkoff met with Putin, and Trump characterized this meeting as "highly productive." "Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come," the US president stated. (CNBC)

Historic Meeting in Alaska

The Trump-Putin meeting on August 15 will be the first visit by a Russian president to the US in ten years. Putin was last in the United States in September 2015, when he met with Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly in New York. (The Guardian)

The choice of Alaska as the meeting location is not accidental. Given that Putin has been under International Criminal Court sanctions for war crimes since 2023 and is subject to arrest in 125 countries, finding a neutral venue for the summit was extremely difficult. Alaska, being on US territory, provides Putin with safety from international prosecution.

Putin's Plan with Territorial Concessions

According to the Wall Street Journal, published on August 8, Vladimir Putin presented the Trump administration with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine that provides for serious territorial concessions from Kiev. According to sources from the publication, the plan requires Ukraine to transfer Donbass in the east of the country, which has caused serious concerns among European officials.

"European and Ukrainian officials who were briefed by President Trump and Witkoff in a series of calls this week are concerned that Putin is simply using this proposal as a ploy to avoid new American sanctions and tariffs while continuing the war," the Journal reports.

Bloomberg also reports that the deal could cement some of Putin's territorial gains in Ukraine, effectively freezing front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Notably, ahead of Witkoff's negotiations in Moscow, Trump, usually eager to tout his leverage before negotiations, gave only schematic details of the punishments that Russian energy importers might face, whether in the form of American sanctions on foreign refineries importing Russian oil, or American tariffs on countries importing Russian oil.

Trump himself admitted on Friday that he doesn't think sanctions will have much impact, since Russians are "wily characters and pretty good at avoiding sanctions."

He also gave himself maximum freedom for political maneuvering by ensuring that the US Senate did not pass legislation before the summer recess that would give him the authority to impose crushing 500% tariffs on exports from countries importing Russian oil, mainly India, China, Brazil and Turkey.

Trump argued that Congressional legislation was not needed since he could act through executive orders, instead mentioning 100% tariffs on economies importing Russian oil - an impressive number, even if it's lower than the 500% proposed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Ukraine's Reaction: "We Will Not Give Land to Occupiers"

On August 9, 2025, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky gave his first reaction to the announcement of the Trump-Putin meeting, stating that Ukraine "will not give its land to occupiers." (BBC)

In a Telegram statement, Zelensky emphasized that any decisions without Ukraine's participation would be "decisions against peace." "This war must be brought to an end - and Russia must end it. Russia started it and is dragging it out, ignoring all deadlines, and that is the problem, not something else," the Ukrainian president stated.

Addressing the Trump-Putin meeting directly, Zelensky noted that the summit takes place "very far from this war that rages on our land, against our people, and which in any case cannot be concluded without us, without Ukraine."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga supported the president's position, stating: "Russia must not be rewarded for unleashing this war. Ukrainians deserve a just peace based on international law and respect for our territorial integrity and borders defined by our constitution."

Price Cap Disagreements: US vs EU and UK

One of the key disagreements in the Western approach to limiting Russian oil revenues remains the issue of the price cap. The G7 introduced a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 at $60 per barrel. The mechanism works by withdrawing insurance from any shipping company that has not received a certificate that it is selling Russian oil below $60 per barrel, but many problems have arisen.

The UK and EU agreed to lower the price cap from September 2 to $47.60 per barrel, recognizing that the current level is too high in the context of falling oil prices. However, Trump maintains the American ceiling at $60 per barrel - a recipe for sanctions evasion. (The Guardian)

If Trump joins the sanctions, the US and Europe will have to come to a joint decision about the continuing value of the complex price cap - a Biden-era device designed to squeeze Russian oil profits while keeping the global oil price low.

NATO and International Coalition

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed full support for the tough US position. In July, he warned: "If you are the President of China, the Prime Minister of India, or the President of Brazil, and you continue to trade with Russia and buy their oil and gas, then you know: if the man in Moscow doesn't take the peace negotiations seriously, I will impose 100 per cent secondary sanctions"

This statement demonstrates that the threat of secondary sanctions has support not only from the US, but also from the broader Western coalition, which increases pressure on countries continuing to trade with Russia.

Market and Business Reaction

Oil Markets

Oil markets reacted cautiously to Trump's announcement of sanctions against India. On August 7, oil closed down 1% after the president announced new tariffs for India. (CNBC)

Traders seem to believe that Trump will not actually follow through on his threats in full. Experts note that the market believes Trump will back down from tariffs on Russian crude buyers, especially given his previous experience with triple-digit tariffs against China, which led to an almost complete halt in trade between the two countries.

Impact on Companies

Particular attention is drawn to the situation with American company Apple, which is moving most iPhone production to India, specifically production of phones it wants to sell in the US. (BBC)

If these products fall under the new tariffs, prices for American consumers could rise significantly. This is because tariffs are paid by companies that import goods, and these companies tend to pass on most, if not all, of their increased costs to their customers.

Microsoft this week suspended software services to Indian refinery Nayara Energy after it came under EU sanctions. Other refineries may be placed under sanctions - and the UK is likely to follow suit.

Shipping and Insurance

According to Reuters, as early as August 1, there were reports of tankers with Russian oil being diverted from Indian ports due to sanctions fears. Two vessels, Achilles and Elyte, loaded with Russian oil, were preparing to unload Russian Urals oil for Reliance, but both of these vessels are under UK and European Union sanctions. (Reuters)

Long-term Consequences and Development Scenarios

Scenario 1: Full-Scale Secondary Sanctions

If Trump decides to impose 100% tariffs against all major buyers of Russian oil, including China, this could lead to:

• Sharp rise in global oil prices due to reduced market supply

  
  

• Increased inflationary pressure in the US and other developed countries

  
  

• Reorientation of trade flows with creation of new alternative supply routes

  
  

• Deepening of the split between the West and BRICS countries

  
  

• Acceleration of de-dollarization of international energy trade

  
  

Scenario 2: Selective Sanctions

A more likely scenario assumes that Trump will selectively apply sanctions, punishing weaker economies like India, but avoiding direct confrontation with China:

• Creation of a multi-tier sanctions system with different levels of pressure

  
  

• Preservation of trade relations with China while simultaneously pressuring it

  
  

• Gradual strengthening of sanctions depending on progress in Ukraine negotiations

  
  

• Use of the threat of sanctions as a negotiating tool without their full implementation

  
  

Scenario 3: Retreat and Negotiations

Given Trump's own skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions and his statement that Russians are "wily characters," a scenario is possible in which:

• The deadline will be extended under the pretext of progress in negotiations

  
  

• Sanctions will be softened or postponed in exchange for partial concessions

  
  

• Focus will shift from sanctions to direct negotiations between Trump and Putin

  
  

• A compromise will be reached that allows both sides to save face

  
  

Lessons from the History of Sanctions

Iranian Experience

The experience of sanctions against Iran shows that even the harshest economic measures do not always lead to desired political changes. The US imposed restrictions against Iran in 1979 after the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran. (State Department) Iran has lived under sanctions for decades, developing alternative economic ties and mechanisms to circumvent restrictions. According to Reuters, Iranian company Sahara Thunder developed complex schemes for moving sanctioned oil around the world. (Reuters)

Cuban Embargo

The more than 60-year US embargo against Cuba demonstrates that sanctions can become a permanent feature of international relations without achieving their original goals. Cuba adapted to isolation by finding alternative trading partners in the USSR, and later Venezuela and China, developing self-sufficiency in key sectors.

Sanctions Against Apartheid in South Africa

One of the few successful examples - sanctions against the apartheid regime in South Africa, which combined with internal pressure contributed to political changes. International sanctions, including trade embargoes and boycotts, began in the 1960s and intensified in the 1980s. However, this took decades and required a broad international coalition that included the UN, the Organization of African Unity and the Non-Aligned Movement.

Alternative Payment Mechanisms and Sanctions Evasion

National Currencies

Russia, China and India are actively developing mechanisms for trading in national currencies, bypassing the US dollar. According to FX Street analysts, BRICS countries are developing an alternative payment system that could accelerate the de-dollarization process. (FX Street)

This includes:

• Rupee-ruble settlements between India and Russia

  
  

• Yuan as settlement currency for Chinese-Russian trade - China developed the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payments System) system (FX Street)

  
  

• Development of SPFS - Russian alternative to SWIFT - Russia and China launched their own cross-border payment mechanisms (Cambridge)

  
  

• Central bank digital currencies as a potential tool for sanctions evasion - BRICS announced plans to create a blockchain payment system (Investing News)

  
  

Barter Deals

The revival of barter trade is becoming an increasingly likely scenario:

• Oil in exchange for goods - direct exchange of energy for industrial products

  
  

• Trilateral deals involving intermediaries from neutral countries

  
  

• Compensation agreements with deferred payments and mutual settlements

  
  

Impact on Global Energy Transition

Accelerating the Transition to Renewable Energy

The crisis with Russian oil could accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy investments will grow to $3.3 trillion in 2025, with renewable investments exceeding $2.2 trillion. (IEA)

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that "the sun is rising over the era of clean energy," noting that 90% of renewable energy projects are already cheaper than fossil fuels. (The Guardian)

• Increased investment in solar and wind energy - electricity and renewable spending will exceed $1.5 trillion, up 6% from 2024 (WEF)

  
  

• Development of hydrogen economy as an alternative to hydrocarbons

  
  

• Transportation electrification to reduce oil dependence

  
  

• Improving energy efficiency as a way to reduce consumption - the Energy Transition Index 2025 recorded 1.1% year-on-year growth (WEF)

  
  

Geopolitics of Energy Security

The current crisis will reshape the global energy architecture:

• Regionalization of energy markets with creation of closed trading blocs

  
  

• Supplier diversification as a national security priority

  
  

• Strategic energy reserves become critically important

  
  

• Energy diplomacy comes to the forefront of international relations

  
  

Domestic Political Consequences in the US

Impact on Consumers

American consumers are already beginning to feel the effect of Trump's tariffs. According to AP News, gasoline costs rose 1% from May to June alone, and food prices increased 0.3%. Prices for appliances, toys, clothing, footwear and sporting goods - all heavily imported items - have also risen. (AP News)

According to CNBC, the consumer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, compared to 2.4% in May. Economists warn that the full effect of Trump's tariffs is yet to come. (CNBC)

Consumers may face:

• Rising gasoline prices if sanctions lead to oil shortages

  
  

• Higher prices for imported goods from sanctioned countries - Goldman Sachs forecasts monthly core inflation growth of 0.3-0.4% in the coming months (Reuters)

  
  

• Inflationary pressure that may require tightening monetary policy

  
  

• Reduced choice of goods if supply chains are disrupted

  
  

Political Risks for Trump

Aggressive sanctions policy creates risks for the administration:

• Accusations of escalation of conflict instead of its resolution

  
  

• Criticism from business hurt by sanctions

  
  

• Tension in relations with allies who may suffer from secondary sanctions

  
  

• Questions about effectiveness if sanctions do not lead to desired results

  
  

Position of Key International Players

India: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The Indian government finds itself in a difficult position. On one hand, the country needs cheap Russian oil for its growing economy. On the other - it cannot afford a complete break with the US, which is a key strategic partner. As already reported above, government sources told Reuters that India will "do what needs to be done" to ensure its energy security. (Reuters)

India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that "targeted persecution of India is unfounded and unreasonable," pointing to US double standards, as they themselves continue to trade with Russia, albeit in smaller volumes.

China: Strategic Waiting

China has taken a position of strategic waiting. Beijing does not comment on US threats directly, but makes it clear that it will defend its economic interests. Chinese analysts note that any attempts to isolate China from Russian energy resources will only accelerate the creation of an alternative global financial system.

European Union: Balancing Interests

The EU is in a delicate position. On one hand, the bloc supports sanctions against Russia. On the other - it fears that US secondary sanctions could harm the European economy, especially if they affect residual energy imports needed by some member states.

Technological Aspects of Sanctions

Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies

The development of blockchain technologies creates new opportunities for sanctions evasion. According to Reuters, Russian oil companies are actively using cryptocurrencies to facilitate currency exchanges between the Indian rupee, Chinese yuan and Russian ruble. (Reuters)

• Cryptocurrency payments for international trade - Russia adopted legislation legalizing cryptocurrency payments for international trade (Chainalysis)

  
  

• Smart contracts for automating settlements without bank participation

  
  

• Decentralized exchanges for energy trading - use of platforms like Tornado Cash has raised disputes about OFAC authority limits (Chainalysis)

  
  

• Tokenization of commodities as a way to bypass traditional markets

  
  

Artificial Intelligence in Sanctions Tracking

The US and its allies use advanced technologies to monitor sanctions compliance. The BBC reports that satellites and artificial intelligence are actively used to track commodity trade and identify violating vessels. (BBC)

According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), new vessel clustering models have been developed to detect shadow shipping related to transporting sanctioned oil. (CEPR)

• Satellite monitoring of tanker movements - used to track "dark ships" that turn off transponders (Marketplace)

  
  

• Big data analysis to identify evasion schemes - Kpler tracked 117 tankers carrying Russian oil in 2024 (Kpler)

  
  

• Machine learning to predict new supply routes

  
  

• Automated systems for monitoring financial transactions

  
  

Conclusion: World at a Crossroads

August 8, 2025, may go down in history as a turning point in the use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool. President Trump's decision on how to act after the deadline expires will determine not only the course of the conflict in Ukraine, but also the future of global energy trade.

The world is watching whether the threat of secondary sanctions can force Russia to make concessions, or whether it will lead to further fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs. The stakes are high not only for the direct participants in the conflict, but for the entire system of international economic relations that has developed since World War II.

As former Ambassador McFaul noted, quoting George Shultz: "Never point a gun at anyone if you're not prepared to shoot." The question is whether Trump is ready to pull the trigger of the weapon of economic mass destruction, or whether at the last moment he will find a way to avoid escalation that could have unpredictable consequences for the world economy.

In any case, the events of August 8, 2025, demonstrate that the era of unlimited globalization is coming to an end, giving way to a new reality where economic ties are increasingly determined by geopolitical considerations. The only question is how painful this transition will be and whether the international community can find a new balance that prevents sliding into full-scale economic warfare.