A Slap Across the Balkans: How 35% Became a Sign of Dissent

At the beginning of July, Donald Trump — once again a key figure in American politics — signed a series of letters, nearly identical in content, addressed to fourteen countries. Among the recipients, unexpectedly, were Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The wording was harsh: starting August 1, exports from these countries to the U.S. would be subject to a 35% tariff for Serbia and a 30% tariff for Bosnia. As the author previously wrote in the piece “Tariffs by Hand: How Trump Writes the Economy Through Commas and Capital Letters”.

The export sums? Negligible. The real economic effect? Almost zero.

And yet — this is no accident and no technical error. It was done publicly, firmly, and personally.

Why then were two small Balkan countries targeted by the world’s largest economic power?

To understand this, one must abandon accounting logic — and switch to the language of symbols, signals, and political strategy. This is not a story about money. This is a story about world order — and about who gets to decide who can and who cannot.

An economy without losses — but with a message

Is Serbia frightened by a 35% tariff on exports to the U.S.?

No. Because there’s nothing to be frightened of.

• According to official USTR data, Serbia’s total annual exports to the U.S. amount to around $436 million, while imports stand at about $500 million.

• For Bosnia, the figures are even more modest: $100–120 million in both directions.

• This is less than 0.02% of the United States’ total foreign trade volume.

A comparison:

• Just iPhones imported from China account for $65 billion annually.

• Car exports from Japan — about $40 billion.

• Even Vietnam, which also received a letter, exports 30 times more to the U.S. than Serbia does.

If Trump wanted to really punish an economy — he’d have chosen different targets.

But he chose the Balkans. Why?

Answer: because it’s not about the goods, but about the meaning.

Tariffs here are not a blow to the wallet — they’re a sting to national pride.

This is how politics works in 2025:

1. First comes a harsh symbol.

2. Then — the press reaction.

3. Next — reinterpretation of that symbol within the country.

And it doesn’t matter how many aluminum pipes Bosnia delivered. What matters is that the President of the United States officially threatened it with sanctions.

This is not economics. This is a public slap in the face. A business card thrown on the table with a message: “You’re next.”

And he will be heard — not at customs, but in the news, in parliament, at rallies and on talk shows.

The political geography of the strike: China, Europe, the Balkans… and Russia

Here’s what matters: these aren’t punitive tariffs — they’re reminders. Reminders of who’s in charge — and who shouldn’t get too comfortable.

Russia — the shadow behind the Balkan theater

Serbia and Republika Srpska are key European allies of Russia. They are:

• The only ones in Europe who refused to support sanctions;

• Actively opposed to recognizing Kosovo’s independence (which benefits the Kremlin);

• Officially host Russian delegations and promote narratives supporting Moscow.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s letter to Željka Cvijanović, as the leader of the pro-Russian Republika Srpska, rather than the entire Bosnian government, looks like a symbolic blow to the Kremlin’s closest ally.

One could say: the strike isn’t aimed at the region’s economy — but at the political architecture of Russian influence in the Balkans.

Especially relevant in 2025 — the year when Trump has already:

• Distanced himself from Putin, accusing Russia of “excessive aggression”;

• Revived patriotic rhetoric, where there’s no room for formal allies flirting with U.S. enemies. Loyalty becomes a test — and those balancing between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing are sent a message: the two-faced game is over;

• Introduced tariffs against BRICS, including through proxy mechanisms.

Thus, Trump is not just baring his teeth at the Kremlin — he’s doing it through Russia’s closest regional ally, however small. The Balkan chessboard has become part of a grander game.

China’s route through the Balkans

Serbia is a key node of the “Balkan Silk Road” — a project China has invested billions into:

• The high-speed Budapest–Belgrade railway (contractor: China’s CRBC),

• Highways funded by Chinese loans,

• Huawei joining Serbia’s digital infrastructure,

• Agreements for direct yuan settlements.

And suddenly, America steps in — putting Serbia in the same basket as Bangladesh and Cambodia — countries traditionally dependent on Chinese subsidies and trade schemes.

It’s like the club owner suddenly starts ID-checking an old friend. “Whose side are you on, Serbia? Ours or Beijing’s?”

Trump is making it clear: even if you’re “small,” you’re not allowed to play both sides. Either you’re with the U.S. — or you’re in the risk zone. Even if your trade totals just $400 million.

Europe is also a target

According to Politico, this wave of tariffs is a direct attempt to push Germany and France out of the Kosovo talks.

If Germany doesn’t want to engage — the U.S. will do it. Harshly. Unilaterally.

Balkan Insight plainly states that Trump’s move is not an economic act, but part of a campaign to push Europe out of the Balkans: “Trump imposes steep tariffs on Serbia and Bosnia”

And Bosnia? That’s more complex.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a unified state — it’s a confederation of three ethnic communities:

• Bosniaks (Muslims),

• Serbs,

• Croats.

The U.S. President sends a personal letter not to the country’s official representative, but to the regional leader — the President of Republika Srpska, Željka Cvijanović. This raises alarming questions about interference in Bosnia’s internal balance:

Why was the letter addressed to just one part of Bosnia — its Serb entity? This is interference in the delicate ethno-political equilibrium.

Trump’s gesture is seen as open support for Republika Srpska, which could be interpreted as legitimizing its separatist tendencies.

This is not a trade crisis — it’s a crisis of identity. Not yet a conflict — but the seeds of one.

How it will be perceived — and used — by local media and politicians

1. Media: who tells the story

The Balkans don’t have a single TV channel or a single truth. They have parallel realities, where the same event can be presented in completely opposite ways.

Important: no ordinary citizen of Bosnia or Serbia will read Trump’s letter personally.

They’ll hear about it on television. Which means — through the interpretation offered by elites.

2. Politicians: how it will be converted

Tariffs are not just foreign policy. They’re an opportunity for domestic mobilization.

So even if the tariffs are never implemented — the threat itself becomes an event.

Interpretations matter more than facts

No one in Belgrade will recall what percentage of Serbia’s exports go to the U.S.

But everyone will remember that the U.S. President deemed their country worthy of a 35% tariff. That’s not economics — that’s humiliation. Or, depending on how it’s spun — a challenge to be answered.

What does this mean for the average Serb or Bosnian?

No prices, no inflation — no direct impact

No one will get poorer because of these tariffs:

• American products are rare on local shelves;

• Coca-Cola is produced regionally; iPhones are imported from the EU;

• Bosnian and Serbian companies barely export to the U.S.

Therefore: no material consequences.

But the perception effect — is huge

Exactly because it’s unclear why and for what, the threat of tariffs may provoke:

• Distrust toward the U.S.;

• Reinforcement of the “wounded nation” image;

• A surge of national pride or despair — depending on the media framing.

This is an emotional trigger, not an economic measure.

People don’t react to tariffs — they react to the explanation.

The way politicians and media present this news will be decisive:

• “America wants to break us” — some will say.

• “America is defending justice” — others will claim.

• “We need China” — still others will argue.

That’s why it’s important to track not the tariff itself — but its interpretation.

A rhetorical wave before the elections

For many players inside Serbia and Bosnia — this is a gift:

• For nationalists: a chance to show strength and independence;

• For the pro-Russian camp: a reason to blame the West for hostility;

• For Eurosceptics: an opening to push the idea that the EU is unreliable.

Even with no real consequences, the tariff becomes a political trampoline.

These tariffs are like a whip cracking in the air: no one is physically harmed, but everyone instinctively flinches.

And in that moment, politicians will supply their narrative: “Here’s why you’re afraid — because they’re ruling you again.”

Symbols, not numbers, drive emotions

Even if the tariffs are never enforced, they’ve already had an impact: they separated the ‘insiders’ from the ‘outsiders’. And now every politician in the Balkans — from the prime minister to the local councilman — is deciding how to turn that signal to their advantage. Or use it to hurt a rival.