Roman Circle: Patriot, Oil, and 500%

The Night Before the Summit

July 9, 2025, Rome. As evening fell at the La Nuvola congress center — before the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) officially began — informal meetings took place behind closed doors, absent from the official agenda.

It was here that a key conversation unfolded: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with William Kellogg, the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine’s Reconstruction.

Officially, Kellogg was heading the American delegation at the URC, scheduled to open the next day, July 10. But in reality, he was the first interlocutor with whom Zelenskyy discussed not reconstruction projects, but weapons, sanctions, and the White House’s position.

According to Reuters, the main topics included arms deliveries, strengthening air defense, procurement of U.S. weapons, joint defense production, and efforts to localize it in Ukraine. A second key theme: the detailed discussion of proposed intensified sanctions against Moscow.

Who Is Kellogg

Lieutenant General William “Keith” Kellogg is a well-known but non-public figure. In 2024, he became the U.S. special representative for Ukraine and Russia, and in early 2025, he was officially appointed as the envoy for Ukraine’s reconstruction. In his hands lie not only diplomatic coordination but influence over U.S. aid policy: from defense contracts to America’s participation in international funds and forums.

Previously, Kellogg served as a national security advisor in Donald Trump’s administration and was one of the architects of the U.S. transition to a strategy of “economic pressure with military deterrence.” His style: tight control, minimal promises, and a focus on U.S. self-interest. This makes him an ideal negotiator in an environment where the White House wants to maintain support for Ukraine while restructuring that support to better suit its own interests.

At the Rome conference, Kellogg also oversees an informal diplomatic initiative with the working name “Coalition of the Willing” — an alliance of countries ready to act faster than the EU or NATO. According to Anewz.tv, the first meeting of this group takes place on July 10 — parallel to the official URC program.

Negotiations with Kellogg: Weapons and Oil

In essence, the July 9 meeting between Zelenskyy and Kellogg was a private prologue to the conference, setting informal priorities before public speeches began. And the central topics were not humanitarian aid or investment, but weapons and sanctions.

According to RFE, Zelenskyy asked Kellogg for “sharp” sanctions against Russian oil and other measures aimed at forcing Moscow to the negotiating table. On June 9, Ukraine experienced the most massive attack since the war began: 728 drones, including 300 Iranian-made Shaheds, and 13 ballistic missiles.

On June 7, the U.S. confirmed that weapons shipments had resumed after a brief but high-profile pause. According to the article “Pause and Pivot,” some analysts suggested that halting aid was part of the Trump administration’s political strategy combining an “America First” course with a desire to pressure allies.

Secondary Sanctions as Leverage

The second key topic was the bill on secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue to buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and raw materials. This refers to the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241), drafted by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal. It proposes a customs tariff of up to 500% on products from countries that help circumvent sanctions. A full breakdown is in the article “U.S. Multipolar Diplomacy.”

Zelenskyy backed the bill and expressed hope that the Trump administration would not veto it or delay implementation. As reported by Reuters and Anewz.tv, the Ukrainian delegation insisted on immediate deployment of “sanctions 2.0” as the basis for a new deterrence policy against Russia and pressure on its partners in Asia and Africa.

The Conference (URC)

For the first time, the URC is not merely a symbol of support, but a platform with a tough financial agenda, concrete projects, and political conditions. Officially, URC-2025 is organized by the governments of Italy and Ukraine with support from the European Commission and the G7 (AP).

The main venue is the La Nuvola congress center in Rome’s EUR district, where over two days, dozens of sessions, panels, and informal meetings are held. According to Italy’s foreign ministry, around 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries are participating — including EU, U.S., Japanese, and Canadian leaders, as well as private sector reps, international banks, NGOs, and experts.

Who’s Who

Speakers at the opening included:

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine;

• Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy;

• Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission;

• Chancellor of Germany and leaders from Poland, the Netherlands, Greece, and others.

Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready to offer international partners dozens of prepared projects with full technical and economic documentation, legal frameworks, and risk insurance mechanisms. He stressed this is not about “abstract aid” but about mutually beneficial investments, with Ukraine offering not only a market but a future EU member partnership.

Conference Structure: Four Tracks

URC-2025 follows the “Berlin model” set at the previous summit. All discussions and projects are classified into four tracks:

1. Business Dimension

• Infrastructure, energy, heavy industry investment

• War risk insurance

• Accelerated SME access to financing

2. Human Dimension

• Integration of internally displaced persons

• Veteran rehabilitation programs

• Gender and youth inclusion

3. Local and Regional Dimension

• Support for decentralization

• Municipal development

• Regional digitization

4. EU Dimension

• Reforms aligned with EU accession

• Legal transparency and adaptation

• Anti-corruption initiatives

More on the Italian Foreign Ministry’s official portal.

Confirmed Outcomes from Day One

• Italy announced a €300 million support package for SMEs involved in infrastructure restoration in Ukraine (The Guardian, July 9).

• The EU and EBRD expanded guarantee mechanisms to attract private investment in Ukraine’s energy and logistics sectors (EBRD).

• UNHCR presented a refugee return forecasting model based on migration flows, risks, and regional infrastructure data (UNHCR press release).

• The Vatican, via Pope Leo XIV, proposed using the Holy See as a platform for potential peace talks. According to The Guardian, the Kremlin has not responded.

Secondary Sanctions and the “Trump Option”

Amid the URC summit, a rising theme — not formally on the agenda but crucial to strategy — was secondary sanctions on countries still buying Russian energy. This was the topic Zelenskyy raised in his July 9 meeting with Kellogg.

S.1241: The 500% Tariff Bill

The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241), drafted by Senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D), proposes:

• A 500% tariff on goods from countries that continue trade with Russia (especially buying oil, gas, uranium, and metals);

• Direct sanctions on companies using Russian-origin materials in supply chains;

• Restrictions on shipping, insurance, and processing of goods with Russian origin.

As detailed in “U.S. Multipolar Diplomacy,” the bill has over 80 Senate supporters and is pitched as a bipartisan tool to reshape global sanctions policy. Its goal: not just reduce Russian exports but build a “sanctions wall” around any intermediaries, from Turkey to India, from the UAE to Singapore.

Ukraine’s Position and Kellogg’s Response

During the Rome meeting, Zelenskyy said secondary sanctions are critical, especially amid growing circumvention via third-world countries. Kyiv is not merely supportive but demands swift and strict implementation.

According to Anewz.tv, Kellogg accepted Ukraine’s stance and promised to relay the proposals to the White House. He also emphasized that sanctions must include flexible waiver mechanisms to avoid harming key U.S. allies.

Donald Trump: “At My Option”

The situation is further complicated by the fact that the final version of S.1241 will include a political safeguard: the president has the right to partially or fully opt out of applying the tariff if he deems it beneficial. 

In an interview on July 8, Donald Trump stated that he views sanctions as a tool of pressure rather than a commitment. His phrase “at my option” has already become a political marker: the U.S. is prepared to take tough measures — but is not obligated to implement them automatically (Bay News 9).

Specifically, the U.S. President stated: “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless,” — marking one of his harshest statements about the Russian leader.

Senator Graham responded on Х to the Commander-in-Chief’s remarks, praising Trump for being “spot on” and pledging to “move soon on a tough sanctions bill.”

Trump also noted he may apply the 500% tariff if Turkey, China, or India pursue “unfavorable policies,” but is also “willing to negotiate” under fair trade terms.

Political Formula: Threat Without Commitment

Thus, S.1241 becomes part of a broader “conditional toughness” model where the U.S. signals readiness for extreme action but retains selective freedom. In Trump’s hands, it’s a tool of both coercion and diplomacy: to pressure Moscow, negotiate with Beijing, and manage allies.

In the context of the Rome conference, this creates a paradox: while Europe discusses transparent aid mechanisms, the U.S. asserts its position as the central power determining sanctions, defense, and funding.

“Coalition of the Willing”: A Parallel Architecture

While the official URC program proceeds at Rome’s La Nuvola with rigid diplomatic protocol, another structure was forming in the background — an informal alliance Washington calls the “Coalition of the Willing.” Its core: not declarations or funds, but readiness to act quickly, without EU consensus or multilateral mechanisms.

What Is the “Coalition of the Willing”

According to Anewz.tv, the group was assembled by U.S. envoy Kellogg ahead of the URC. It includes:

• Eastern European states (including Poland and Lithuania),

• The United Kingdom,

• Some Baltic and Scandinavian countries,

• Canada and Japan (as observers).

There is no formal statute or founding document. Everything is based on bilateral deals and “package proposals” allowing members to coordinate arms deliveries, reconstruction financing, and infrastructure protection outside the EU and NATO frameworks.

Why Now

The “Coalition of the Willing” is a direct response to the EU’s delays in fulfilling its obligations. As AP highlights, the U.S. increasingly signals that support for Ukraine cannot be “diluted” by the consensus of 27 member states. Structures like this coalition allow actions to be:

• Faster,

• Less public,

• More flexible — especially on sanctions and military logistics.

Kellogg’s July 9 meeting with Zelenskyy effectively launched the group’s activation within the URC. On July 10, a first informal session took place in the summit’s backrooms, where they discussed:

• Opening a new center for repairing and producing military equipment in western Ukraine;

• Protecting logistics hubs from Russian attacks;

• Funding reconstruction projects from non-EU countries.

The Role of the U.S. and Trump

Under Trump, “coalitions of the willing” become part of a segmented support model: not via multilateral agreements but through networks of loyal countries willing to take risks in exchange for access to technology, protection, and bilateral trade benefits.

As noted in “Pause and Pivot,” the arms supply decision process is already partly removed from the State Department to a new Coordination Council, where Kellogg plays a central role. This avoids blockages and bureaucratic delays.

Risks and Outlook

The very idea of a “Coalition of the Willing” sends a double message:

• To Ukraine: support will come, but on the basis of political loyalty and execution speed;

• To Europe: if you won’t pay, don’t block those who will.

It deepens the rift between “Old Europe,” favoring formalized aid, and a “new architecture” where the U.S. acts selectively via trusted partners. This model suits Trump: it highlights control, avoids weak links, and builds a custom circle of allies beyond global institutions.

Washington, Rome, and the Circle of Power

The Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, with its tidy sessions, economic presentations, and legal roadmaps, in reality became a political accelerator for a much tougher game. Beneath the flowery speeches about transformation and reform, negotiations were underway about Patriot systems, 500% sanctions, and a parallel aid structure.

The U.S. demonstrated three levels of influence:

1. Personal Control: William Kellogg, as envoy, held direct talks with Zelenskyy before the conference even started, setting support conditions ahead of EU decisions.

2. Sanctions Threat: Senate bill S.1241 sent a clear message to Russia’s trading partners: align or face 500% tariffs — with Trump holding the master key: “at my option.”

3. Network Diplomacy: The “Coalition of the Willing,” formed outside traditional structures (EU, NATO, UN), opens the path for a U.S.-driven world model — without alliances but with levers.

Ukraine, at the center of this geopolitical matrix, is betting on American leadership — unpredictable, but well-resourced. Europe receives the signal: either pick up the pace or lose the center of gravity. Meanwhile, Donald Trump — whether offering support or pressure — becomes the architect of a new model of assistance: controlled, conditional, selective.

Rome became an arena where not only Ukraine is being rebuilt — but the very order of power in the Atlantic world. While Europe drafts manifestos, the U.S. is already placing its pieces on the board.