The Balkan Labyrinth: Where Pipes Lead to Brussels and Shadows to the Kremlin
5/8/25
By:
Michael K.
As the EU calls to the future, the region responds with protests, parades and plebiscites of fear
The Balkans: The Tension Between the EU, Belgrade, and the Breath of Democracy
On the Balkans, it’s not the ground that shakes again, but the air—charged with the strained silence between inertia and change. No more shots fired, but every day feels like a sniper’s bullet to trust. The European Union still waves from its window: “Hurry up, we’re waiting,” while the regions respond in their own way—some with offshore accounts, some with protests, some with attempts to stitch nations together with World Bank credit.
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Serbia: The Primer of Dependence and Dust from Elections
When the Minister of Finance’s children study at a private school for 235,000 euros, and an offshore company with Russian ties is paying for it—this is not corruption. It’s just a form of geopolitical literacy.
On May 6, an investigation by OCCRP and Vreme revealed that Serbia’s Minister of Finance, Siniša Mali, had used offshore companies tied to Moscow and Cyprus to pay for his children’s expensive education at Belgrade International School. Transactions amounting to up to 250,000 euros, conducted through structures from the British Virgin Islands and Cyprus, look like a “family-first” scheme—paid for through legalized shadows.
Citizens remember. On May 6, students took to the streets—not just against corruption, but against the feeling that everything has already been decided for them. The protest, organized by several university groups, took place in Belgrade under the slogans “We are not their future” and “No to the Ministry of Silence.”
And the next day, Prime Minister Ana Brnabić added fuel to the fire—or to the algorithm. On air and on social media, she called the students participating in the protests “terrorists,” sparking a new wave of indignation.
— We have democracy, — someone might say.
— Only if you turn off the Wi-Fi, — someone else might reply.
Let’s add to this Aleksandar Vučić’s statement that he is going to Moscow on May 9 for “Victory Day.” Formally—by invitation. In fact—by agenda.
Serbia, as always, moves down two roads at once: one to Brussels, the other to Red Square. And both lead in a circle.
Kosovo: Democracy with a Sight on the Criminal Code
— So, what’s going on, Mr. Kurti?
— Everything’s under control. Even the prosecutor’s office. For now.
On May 8, in Pristina, the opposition decided to go all in: the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) filed a criminal complaint against Prime Minister Albin Kurti for continuing to lead the government after becoming a member of parliament. Along with him, several other ministers who apparently saw “dual office holding” as a new form of public service were also named.
Parliamentary seats are warm, ministerial ones even warmer. Why not sit on both?
But this is no longer just political bickering. It’s a test for the entire system’s resilience. After all, Kurti is not just a prime minister. He’s a symbol: of steadfastness, independence, and ideological resilience. And when they shoot at the symbol legally—no one is untouchable anymore.
The EU remains silent for now, but that silence is growing louder. As usual, Brussels prefers to speak the language of “stability” and “dialogue.” But with whom—if the dialogue itself has now turned into a criminal case?
Albania: Elections Between Trash, Mantras, and Puppets
“Rama has cleaned up,” whispers the street.
“Rama has cleaned up the streets,” clarifies Rama himself.
And the opposition adds: “Only now they don’t remove the trash; they recycle it into an electorate.”
On May 11, Albania will hold parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Edi Rama, already elected three times, is seeking a fourth term. He promises reforms, digitalization, and EU membership by 2030—but the promises are sinking in corruption scandals.
One of the symbols of failure is the waste incineration plants, especially the project in Elbasan. Instead of a “green economy,” there’s a dump, criminal cases, and the flight of former officials. One environmental minister has already been convicted, and the former deputy prime minister is under investigation and outside the country.
The opposition, led by Sali Berisha, is also not without its flaws. He is under house arrest on charges of corruption, which he calls politically motivated. To avoid losing, Berisha pulls out the American card: the campaign enlists political technologists from Trump’s team, including Paul Manafort.
International observers, including the OSCE, are closely watching the elections, especially as for the first time, around 250,000 Albanians living abroad will be able to vote. This is seen as a test: not just of who will win, but whether Albania can pass the test of European maturity.
Albania is choosing between managed chaos and chaotic management. The question is not who will win. It’s who still believes in the process.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Green Turn on the Coals of the Past
In a country where the mines are deeper than the reforms, any attempt to step off the coal needle is nearly a revolution.
On May 5, the World Bank approved nearly 80 million euros for the “Fair Transition” project—a program that aims to close old mines, retrain workers, and transform former industrial zones into areas for solar and wind energy.
The mine in Zenica, the slag heaps in Banovići, the ruins in Kakanj — this is not just geography, it’s a chronicle of coal dependence. Now, former pits will become energy projects. Or, at least, PowerPoint presentations.
International institutions call it a “fair transition.” Locals just call it hope for work in the 21st century.
North Macedonia: Pipeline to Europe, Debt in the Shadows
When there are no new elections, old problems reappear. And gas—and the IMF—are here to solve them.
On May 8, Skopje and Athens signed the long-awaited agreement: the gas pipeline between North Macedonia and Greece has finally moved from the memorandum phase to bulldozers. 123 kilometers of pipe, 84 million euros in investments, and the dream of cleaner air than in Skopje in winter, when heating is a battle, not comfort.
📎 Balkan Green Energy News, May 8, 2025
The project promises not only gasification but also a future where the air doesn’t smell like coal, and the economy doesn’t just rely on debt. But while some lay pipes, others lay debts.
The IMF peeked into the accounting books and saw the reality: inflation breathing down growth’s neck, debts rising, deficits chronic. A 3.3% growth rate looks bright until you look at what it’s built on.
North Macedonia seems to be pulling a pipe towards the EU, but at the same time, it’s carrying a backpack full of debt, staff shortages, and political mistrust. The finish line is still far away. The main thing is not to suffocate at the turn.
Croatia: From Krk to Capitol Hill — Plenković’s Gas Diplomacy
When everything in Europe is heating up—from climate to geopolitics—Plenković is heating up his connections. Right in Washington.
On May 8, Croatian Prime Minister arrived in the USA. Formally—to strengthen relations. In fact—he’s showing that Croatia has more to offer than wine and tourist brochures. The liquefied gas terminal on the island of Krk has become a trump card in the energy deck. Now, in light of the war in Ukraine and supply disruptions, Washington looks at Zagreb not as a pleasant fringe of the EU, but as a potential hub.
📎 The Dubrovnik Times, May 8, 2025
Plenković talks about trade, culture, and diplomacy. But behind all these words, there’s a simple message: Croatia wants to play in the big league. Not just within the EU, but beyond it. Especially when the agenda is gas and influence.
Montenegro: The Network of the Future Between Mountains and Antennas
Against the backdrop of tourist panoramas and leisurely morning coffees, Montenegro is building more than just promenades. It’s laying down cables.
On May 8 — and this is not just a date, but a milestone in modernization: Montenegro’s antitrust agency approved the purchase of the local operator, Telemach Crna Gora, by the Bosnian telecom company, BH Telecom. The deal opens the door to regional digital integration: more speed, fewer monopolies, and the first hint of true telecom competition.
The irony is that BH Telecom is entering a market where cables often lose out to satellites, and WhatsApp conversations happen over evening chats on the bench. But even these benches might now be in the zone of stable signals.
While others count megabytes, Montenegro is betting on infrastructure. Communication is also sovereignty. Especially in the Balkans.
Moldova: From the Depths of the Black Sea — Into Europe’s Embrace
— So, where do you get your gas now?
— From the future. And, if we’re lucky, without looking back at the past.
On May 7, Chișinău signed a contract that smells of salt, depth, and pragmatism. Romanian OMV Petrom will supply Moldova with a quarter of its annual gas needs—straight from the Neptun Deep field deep under the Black Sea. Deliveries will start in 2027, but the symbolism of the deal is already here: it marks a break from Russian dependence, wrapped in a Brussels-style package.
And on May 8, in Chișinău, it wasn’t just Europe Day—it was the visit of European Commissioner Marta Kos. The Slovene, who has long spoken the language of expansion, came not only for the celebration. Her mission? To remind everyone: Moldova is in the game. Meetings with citizens, discussions about reforms, and steps in the Growth Plan—all of this is transforming Moldova’s EU course from a slogan into a roadmap.
📎 European Commission, May 8, 2025
While the streets are lined with flags, the negotiations are filled with formulas, and the signatures are full of strategies. Moldova is learning to play the long game. And, perhaps for the first time, not alone.
Romania: The Divided Ballot and Currency Storm
— So, what’s going on there?
— The second round, the third act, and the fifth leu for the euro.
On May 4, Romanians didn’t just vote. They chose between the future and the memory of it. Far-right George Simion—41%. Nicușor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest—21%. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, whose party failed, is resigning. The country is entering turbulence, and the second round on May 18 looks more like a final elimination.
Simion is not just a candidate. He’s a protest in a candidate’s suit. He’s against the EU, against aid to Ukraine, for Trump, and against everything that smells of Brussels protocol. Europe is watching warily, and Bucharest—like looking in the mirror: are we still us, or are we something else now?
Against the backdrop of political nervousness, the leu’s exchange rate is falling: over five leu for one euro. The central bank is burning through reserves, but 2 billion euros don’t stop the distrust. The economy reacts faster than the voter.
📎 Financial Times, May 7, 2025
And from Brussels comes the latest reminder: either you remove the gas price cap, or you’ll face a lawsuit from the EU. Populist politics are now moving into the gas realm.
Romania is like a pendulum: between reform and revenge. And May 18 will show which way it swings.
Bulgaria: Where Rivers Flow South and Shadows East
If geopolitics were a river, Bulgaria would be that boat that’s simultaneously heading toward Athens and back into the past.
On May 7, the country opened the sluices: a water agreement was signed with Greece, which will direct the waters of the Arda River to Greek fields. The agreement will last for five years, replacing an old half-century deal. The opposition cries out about the sale of resources, but in Sofia, they respond: the climate is changing—it’s time to share.
While one river flows south, the other—the political one—turns northeast. The new government under Rosen Zhelyazkov includes the BSP party, whose roots go back to the years when the word “Moscow” was heard as a directive.
The word “euro” in this coalition sounds a bit muffled. As though it’s being said with a glance over the shoulder. Europe—sort of yes, but not too sharply.
And while the water is flowing away, it seems the shadow of the past is lingering.
Hungary: Orbán Comes Out of the Situation — And the Agenda
If Orbán were paid for every European rule he bypassed, Hungary would already have an A+ rating. But while Brussels demands reforms, Budapest offers “legal adjustments.”
It’s May, and Viktor Orbán is still in form: trying to unfreeze 750 million euros from EU funds, frozen due to “minor” issues—like judicial independence, LGBT rights, and migration policy. Instead of reforms, he’s pulling a trick with the spending plan. Let’s call it “Brussels-style Hungarian heuristics.”
But in the real economy, the trick didn’t work: in the first quarter of 2025, growth is zero, and inflation is the highest in the EU. Orbán is writing a budget with optimism worthy of a novel. Forecast: GDP growth of 4.1%. Experts lose their words, and investors lose interest.
German businesses are quietly retracting. Investment plans are the lowest since 2010, when Orbán first returned to power. Business says: “Stagnation.” Orbán says: “Sovereignty.” The conversation is not coming together.
And in energy—just as always. While the EU announces its refusal to use Russian gas by 2027, Budapest, together with Slovakia, condemns the idea, as though it’s an insult to national cuisine.
…And reforms? What reforms. Orbán is now talking not about reforms, but about “Voks 2025” — a national referendum in which Hungarians are asked to vote: do we need Ukraine in the European Union?
An unofficial referendum—yet perfectly official policy. Ballots are already being distributed, and the prime minister is warning at every corner: if Kyiv enters the EU, Hungary might go bankrupt. It’s about pensions, subsidies, jobs. Fears. And how to turn them into politics.
The problem is: according to the Republikon Institute, 47% of Hungarians are already “for” Ukraine’s accession, and if we exclude the undecideds—it’s even 51%.
It turns out, Orbán arranged a plebiscite in which the people can vote—not according to the script. And this is no longer a dialogue. This is a risk.
In the end, Hungary is like a passenger who seems to be heading toward the EU, but keeps a backup exit map in hand. And while the others argue, Orbán is already strolling along the red line, drawing his own next to it.
The Balkans Stand at the Crossroads: Between Promises and Reality, Between Brussels and Moscow, Between the Old and the New
The Balkans stand at a crossroads, between promises and reality, between Brussels and the Kremlin, between the old and the new. We see political gestures, protests in the streets, and deals under the table—and each time we hope that one of the roads actually leads to a bright future. But in reality, there are no clear routes anymore.
Prohibited pipelines, postponed reforms, and elections that no one is ready to finish—these countries resemble travelers holding two passports, trying to decide where to go. Europe, the one they look to with hope, is moving further away, while on the horizon, the unresolved shadows reappear, already beginning to pull them back.
Soon we will find out who will end up on the right side of the Balkans—those who promise revolution, or those who claim: “We still have a way to go.” But no matter who wins, the real elections for the Balkans haven’t taken place yet. They are waiting, and perhaps, they will become a test for all of Europe.
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