Without Putin and Trump: Russia and Ukraine hold first Istanbul talks in three years

As I reported yesterday morning on my social-media channel, it emerged late on 14 May that neither Vladimir Putin nor Donald Trump would attend the Istanbul talks. This was confirmed by the Kremlin (Reuters: “Putin currently has no plans to go to Istanbul talks”) and by Turkish and American sources (Bloomberg).

The day before yesterday, I outlined several possible scenarios in my piece on CovalentBond. Two in particular—Scenario 3 (neither Trump nor Putin attends) and Scenario 5 (talks are postponed)—have come to pass: the first late on 14 May, the second on 15 May.

Participants

• Russia: Delegation led by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky, including Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin (Reuters: “Putin to skip Ukraine talks, Russian team includes seasoned negotiators”)

• Ukraine: Delegation led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, with Serhiy Kislytsia, Oleksandr Poklad, Oleh Lukhovskyi, and others (Reuters: “Ukraine Russia live updates: Zelenskiy says he won’t join Istanbul talks after Putin sent ‘decorative’ delegation”)

• USA: Delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg (Reuters: “Russians and Ukrainians in Turkey for what would be first talks in three years”)

• Turkey (host): Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the Turkish MFA team (TRT Global: “Delegations for peace talks between Russia, Ukraine in Istanbul determined”)

Timeline: 15 May 2025

• Morning: Russian and Ukrainian delegations flew into Istanbul and completed registration for the talks.

• Appointments & Criticism: President Zelenskiy named Defence Minister Rustem Umerov head of the Ukrainian team and lambasted Russia’s “low-level” delegation under Medinsky (Reuters).

• 15:35 UTC: Aboard Air Force One, Donald Trump declared, “Nothing will happen until Putin and I meet.” (Reuters)

• 16:10 UTC: Secretary Rubio called the talks a “logjam” and stressed that a breakthrough depends on a personal Trump–Putin meeting (Reuters).

• Later in the Day: President Zelenskiy arrived in Ankara to meet Erdoğan and finalise the trilateral format.

• Evening: Labour leader Keir Starmer said, “Putin is stalling and not serious about peace.” (Reuters)

• Late Evening: Yahoo News reported that the official start was postponed until Friday, 16 May (Yahoo News).

Timeline: 16 May 2025

• 10:12 CET: US President Trump said he wanted to meet Putin “as soon as we can.”

• 10:56 CET: BBC: “Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal left on the shelf” — Ukraine’s 30-day ceasefire plan, backed by the US and EU, was rejected by Russia.

• 12:44 CET: Official opening of direct talks in Dolmabahçe under Turkey’s auspices.

• 13:03 CET: For the first time in three years, Russian and Ukrainian delegations shared a room:

• Zelenskiy: “Our mandate is an immediate ceasefire.”

• Russia (yesterday): Focus on long-term peace and “removing the root causes of this crisis”—in practice, a challenge to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

• Head of Russia’s team: Mentioned willingness to discuss compromises, but offered no details; others insisted on original demands—no NATO for Ukraine and Russian control of at least five Ukrainian regions, unacceptable to Kyiv (BBC).

Outlook & Possible Scenarios

1. Top-Level Breakthrough

Only a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin can yield a major agreement; without them, progress is unlikely.

2. Temporary Ceasefire (30-Day Plan)

A one-month truce could open humanitarian corridors, yet Russia has already rejected Ukraine’s proposal.

3. Low-Level Impasse

Technical talks at the adviser and ministerial level continue with little progress, confirming US “low expectations” and Rubio’s scepticism.

4. Further Postponement

The talks may be delayed again over disagreements on format and participants, as seen with the recent shift to Friday.

5. Expanded Multilateral Format

Involving the EU, UN or other key players (e.g. China, the UK) to produce a broader “Istanbul Communiqué” and security guarantees—an idea floated as early as the 2022 negotiations (Reuters: “Putin’s negotiator… aims to secure long-lasting peace”).