Air Duel and Diplomacy: Israel Strikes Iran, the World Seeks Paths to Negotiations

On 20 June 2025, the conflict between Israel and Iran entered a new phase of mutual airstrikes and intensified diplomatic efforts.

Israel reported carrying out strikes on dozens of military targets in Iran, including the Organization of Defensive Innovations and Research—linked to the development of nuclear weapons (Reuters).

Countries around the world are evacuating their citizens from Israel and Iran, as the prolonged closure of airspace forces governments to take emergency measures (Reuters).

European foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany, together with the EU High Representative, held a meeting in Geneva, calling on Iran to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme (Reuters).

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of striking the Fordo enrichment facility in Iran and has promised to make a decision within the next two weeks (The Independent). Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is en route to Geneva to participate in these talks.

This sequence of events demonstrates the interplay of rapid military escalation and intense diplomatic pressure that defines a conflict perched on the brink of war and negotiation.

Background of the Conflict

Years of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme culminated in a provisional agreement in 2013 and the comprehensive pact of 2015, under which Tehran limited uranium enrichment in exchange for partial sanctions relief (The Guardian). 

However, after the U.S. withdrawal from the earlier nuclear accords in 2018 and growing suspicions about Iran’s research, talks finally collapsed when Israel launched a sudden strike on Iranian targets on 13 June 2025—known as Operation “Rising Lion” — as reported your humble servant in the article “Escalation in the Middle East and the Surge in Oil Prices”.

A key component of Iran’s programme has been the Organization of Defensive Innovations and Research (SPND)—Iran’s analogue to the U.S. DARPA—created to accelerate the development of nuclear technologies and, allegedly, military-grade uranium enrichment (Reuters).

Since early June 2025, the parties have exchanged massive strikes: on 16 June Iranian rockets hit the Soroka hospital in Be’er Sheva, wounding around 40 people (The Guardian). In response, Israel carried out airstrikes on the Arak heavy-water reactor and the Natanz research complex, deemed the core of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure (The Guardian).

Thus, today’s escalation has grown out of a decade of disagreements over Iran’s nuclear dossier, alternating diplomatic initiatives, and a series of reciprocal strikes that have now evolved into an overt military phase.

Chronology of the Current Strikes

Night Raids by Israel on SPND Facilities in Iran

On the night of 20 June, the Israeli Air Force conducted a series of airstrikes on “dozens of military targets,” including sites of the Organization of Defensive Innovations and Research (SPND), responsible for nuclear-technology development and potential military uranium enrichment (Reuters).

Iran’s Retaliatory Rocket Strikes on Israel

On 19 June, Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles into southern Israel. Among the struck locations was the Soroka hospital in Be’er Sheva, where approximately 40 people were wounded (The Guardian).

Operation “Machtwechsel” and the Scale of the Strikes

In Israeli defence circles, the operation was codenamed “Machtwechsel” (“Shift in the Balance of Power”). The strikes hit research complexes at Natanz and Arak, as well as infrastructure related to heavy-water uranium enrichment. Analysts note that the depth of penetration and precision targeting indicate extensive prior preparation and high-quality intelligence (Der Spiegel).

This exchange of strikes marks a new level of military escalation, in which both sides aim to inflict maximum strategic damage on each other’s nuclear and military infrastructure.

Humanitarian Dimension

Casualties and the Wounded

According to The Guardian, in the past week Israeli airstrikes on Iranian sites killed at least 657 people, while Iranian rocket strikes on southern Israeli districts left over 240 people injured, including some 40 at Soroka hospital in Be’er Sheva.

Evacuation of Civilians

As Reuters reports, governments worldwide are closing their airspace and organising emergency air and sea corridors to evacuate their citizens from Israel and Iran, aiming to minimise risks to foreigners in the zones of military escalation.

Diplomatic Initiatives and Talks

EU Initiative in Geneva

Foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France and Germany, together with the EU High Representative, convened in Geneva, urging Iran to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme amid the growing threat of military action (Reuters), (The Guardian).

OIC Session in Istanbul

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Istanbul to attend a special session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, where consequences of Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites were discussed (Reuters).

Position of Arab States

Foreign ministers of Arab countries in the region gathered in Istanbul to discuss political measures to curb escalation and restore dialogue between Israel and Iran (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Warning from Iran

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated that Tehran would “take whatever is necessary” if the U.S. became involved in the conflict, warning Washington against intervention (Arab News).

Israel’s Precaution

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warned Hezbollah against joining the conflict, noting that the involvement of the Lebanese group would heighten risks for the region’s civilian population (Asharq Al-Awsat).

U.S. Diplomatic Consultations

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held consultations with key allies to discuss the possible role of the United States in defusing the conflict and preventing further escalation (Reuters).

The Role and Position of the United States

Consideration of Strikes on Fordo

U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to decide within two weeks on a potential strike against the Fordo uranium-enrichment facility, emphasising that any military operation must be meticulously planned and sanctioned by Congress (The Independent).

Diplomatic Consultations by Secretary Blinken

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken conducted a series of telephone and video conferences with key U.S. allies in Europe and the Middle East to explore options for supporting Israel and the role of American forces in averting further escalation (Reuters).

Market Reaction

According to Reuters, following President Trump’s remarks about postponing possible strikes on Iran, European stock markets experienced a notable rally, reflecting a temporary easing of geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysis and Forecast

The current phase of the Israel-Iran conflict illustrates how military escalation and diplomatic efforts proceed hand in hand. Israel’s airstrikes on SPND facilities and Iran’s rocket barrages represent the latest episodes in a long-standing confrontation over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Meanwhile, meetings of EU foreign ministers in Geneva and the OIC session in Istanbul demonstrate the international community’s attempts to restrain the parties from full-scale war—with U.S. involvement hanging in the balance.

At the same time, the U.S. decision on a potential strike against Fordo and the reaction of global markets underscore that the outcome will largely depend on whether tension can be defused through diplomacy or if the confrontation will escalate into a new level of great-power engagement.

Operation “Machtwechsel,” characterised by its high precision and element of surprise, speaks to Israel’s thorough preparation. Should the U.S. enter the conflict without Congressional approval and the mandate of its Middle Eastern partners, the situation could spiral out of control, leading to broader hostilities on multiple fronts.