Hybrid Shadow: How Russia Wages War Beyond the Front

Hybrid Strategy: How Russia Expands Its Pressure Beyond the Battlefield

On May 5, 2025, the world once again confronts manifestations of Russia’s pressure strategy, which now extends far beyond the frontlines in Ukraine to target the West’s internal security. While Moscow speaks of “peace initiatives,” acts of sabotage are being reported across Europe, the U.S. is debating a new round of sanctions, and the European Union is seeking legal avenues to end its dependence on Russian gas.

DHL and Explosives: The Logistics of Sabotage

The British newspaper The Guardian has revealed details of a sabotage campaign allegedly orchestrated by Russian intelligence services. Packages disguised as harmless consumer goods — including sex toys, cosmetics, and hygiene products — were shipped via DHL and ended up in warehouses across the UK, Poland, and Germany.

“Had these devices detonated on board an aircraft, the consequences would have been catastrophic,” The Guardian quotes a British intelligence official.

Investigators found that the explosive devices were assembled in Eastern Europe and delivered by couriers recruited through underground internet channels. As The Guardian notes, “this is not merely sabotage — it’s an attempt to undermine infrastructure and sow fear among civilians.”

Recruitment via Telegram: When the Internet Becomes a Weapon

A second investigation, also published by The Guardian, describes a new tactic used by Russian intelligence: recruiting online operatives to carry out acts of sabotage within NATO countries. The goal is not high-impact destruction but symbolic attacks that erode the sense of security and create a climate of instability.

“These people are disposable,” the outlet quotes one security analyst. “Russia uses them as tools in its new pressure campaign, offering no guarantees and operating entirely off the books.”

According to the report, such recruits receive their instructions and payments — often in cryptocurrency — via Telegram and dark web channels, making it difficult to trace the organizers. Many of them are unemployed youth or politically radicalized individuals tasked with relatively simple actions: arson, vandalism, or warehouse explosions. In many cases, the damage is minimal — but the aim is to amplify the atmosphere of insecurity.

“We’ve identified at least seven attempted sabotage acts over the past three months,” The Guardian writes, citing British and Baltic intelligence sources.

Sanctions Against Russia: The Administration Is Ready, but the Signature Remains Uncertain

Amid hybrid threats and escalating conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. administration has prepared a new sanctions package against Russia. According to Reuters, the measures target key Russian banks, the energy sector, and the defense industry. However, it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump will approve the package.

“The president has been presented with the sanctions proposal, but a final decision has not been made,” Reuters reports, citing two anonymous White House sources.

The proposed sanctions include restrictions on transactions with major Russian financial institutions, tighter export controls on dual-use components, and asset freezes for several dozen legal entities. Also under consideration is the expansion of personal sanctions against high-ranking officials close to the Kremlin.

Yet the mere possibility of delaying or withholding approval has alarmed U.S. allies in Europe. Within EU circles, discussions are reportedly underway on how to respond if the White House adopts a passive or inconsistent stance.

Putin and the Nuclear Factor: A Threat “Hopefully Not Needed”

On May 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia “does not seek” to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine. His statement came amid reports of a temporary ceasefire to mark Victory Day celebrations and ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations.

“We do not consider nuclear weapons a tool to resolve this conflict. I hope there will be no need to use them,” Reuters quotes Putin as saying.

Nevertheless, he emphasized that Russia possesses all the necessary means to complete the military operation “on its own terms,” and that its nuclear forces remain in a state of “strategic deterrence.” Analysts interpret these remarks as pressure rhetoric directed at both Ukraine and the West.

“This is classic Kremlin logic,” writes Reuters. “First, project a hawkish stance, then hint at de-escalation — but only on Russian terms.”

Putin’s comments came alongside reports of a 72-hour ceasefire initiated by Russia, although Ukraine has not confirmed any agreement or formal participation.

Gas Entanglements: The EU Seeks to Escape Contractual Traps

While Russia shows flexibility on the diplomatic front and firmness in covert operations, the European Union is attempting to strategically reduce its dependence on Russian gas. According to Reuters, on May 6, Brussels is expected to unveil a “roadmap” for the gradual termination of its remaining contracts with Russian energy giant Gazprom.

However, legal and infrastructural limitations continue to hamper these efforts. Particularly problematic are the so-called “take-or-pay” contracts, which require European companies to pay for gas even if it is not delivered. These agreements, signed before 2022, remain legally binding for countries such as Germany, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary.

“We aim to eliminate all residual dependencies, but must act within the bounds of international law,” a European Commission spokesperson told Reuters.

There is also growing pressure from energy lobbyists, who warn of rising prices and supply instability if the EU exits these contracts too abruptly.

“Gas is still flowing through Ukraine to Austria and Slovakia. This creates a double dependency — on Russia and on fragile infrastructure in an active war zone,” Reuters notes.

Sabotage, Pressure, and Pipelines: Russia Operates on Both Fronts of Hybrid War

Together, these developments illustrate how Russia is conducting a multilayered hybrid campaign, in which physical violence, diplomacy, energy leverage, and disinformation function as parts of a unified strategy.

On one hand, Putin’s statements about nuclear restraint and openness to talks are framed as steps toward de-escalation. On the other, logistics-based sabotage, online recruitments for covert actions, and intelligence activity aim to undermine public stability across NATO and EU member states.

The United States remains in a state of hesitation: the sanctions are ready, but President Trump’s decision is still pending. This uncertainty adds further pressure — both for allies and adversaries. Meanwhile, the EU is trying to maneuver between legal obligations and geopolitical imperatives, seeking to sever its last remaining energy ties with Russia.

This mosaic is not a random set of episodes, but a coherent strategy aimed at raising the cost of resistance, obstructing Western coordination, and eroding trust in democratic resilience.

As Europe and the U.S. build deterrence mechanisms, Moscow continues to play on time, vulnerabilities, and ambiguous signaling. 

And in this new world, where the line between war and peace is increasingly blurred, control over logistics, energy, and perception becomes a weapon as powerful as tanks or missiles.