Diplomatic farce: Istanbul talks reach deadlock

On May 20, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine once again reached a dead end. Reuters reports that during a multiparty phone consultation, Donald Trump communicated not only with Vladimir Putin but also with Volodymyr Zelensky and EU leaders. However, “no agreement was reached” — only a confirmation of continued consultations in the U.S.–Russia–Ukraine format, with no concrete timetable for a ceasefire. Reuters reports this in its materials here and here.

“President Putin, he doesn’t quite understand how to get out of the war,” Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters today. According to him, if Russia is not “ready to overcome the mistakes of the past” in relations with the West, “we will ultimately have to acknowledge: ‘This is not our war,’” — writes Politico.

The same Politico article states: “As for Zelensky himself, he once again emphasized that the obstacle to ending the conflict is Putin. ‘We sincerely want to put an end to this war. I’m not sure Russia is ready for that. We don’t trust them,’ Zelensky said after the call. ‘I would like to see a ceasefire from their side as a sign of readiness. I was pleased to hear from President Trump about an unconditional ceasefire. And we were preparing for that,’ he added.”

A retrospective shows that expectations were far greater. In the article “Kremlin Confirms Istanbul Talks as EU Launches 17th Sanctions Package” (May 15, 2025), I described Moscow’s official participation in the Istanbul round and the structure of the initial restrictive measures — from the embargo on the “shadow fleet” to financial bans and an export embargo on critical components. Two days later, in “Peace Pause on Hold” (May 17, 2025), I noted that no real breakthrough had occurred: the “1000 for 1000” prisoner exchange remained a purely symbolic goodwill gesture and did not affect the course of hostilities.

Considering the latest news, what we see is a picture of a drawn-out diplomatic farce. Russia is likely using negotiations as a tool to buy time and reduce sanctions pressure, while the West is demonstrating growing frustration: under pressure from Friedrich Merz, Europe activated the 17th package of immediate restrictions, and the U.S. is essentially setting a condition — either tangible progress or withdrawal from the process. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius directly accused Moscow of playing for time, stressing the need to intensify sanctions pressure, especially in the energy sector.

Possible developments:

– The Kremlin may offer extended humanitarian concessions (e.g., prisoner exchanges beyond the “1000 for 1000” format) or cosmetic changes in the negotiation structure, trying to preserve its diplomatic image.

– The EU and the U.S. will need to assess whether the new sanctions package is sufficient, or whether a broader diplomatic “stimulus” is required to shake Russia from its delay tactics.

– The possibility of including Turkey and other mediators in a new format remains theoretical, but without a real roadmap, it is unlikely to bring results.

As long as none of the parties is ready for a real compromise, the talks risk slipping into a repeating cycle of “1000 for 1000” and endless negotiations without results.