European Kaleidoscope: Tariffs, Elections, Sanctions and Digital Medicine

Europe enters June 2025 steeped in a complex mix of economic, political, and technological challenges. While Brussels attempts to settle its trade war with the United States, the ECB within the Eurozone wrestles with an unexpected strengthening of the euro that hinders exports. At the same time, Finland calls for harsher measures against Moscow, and in Poland a newly installed president is preparing for a potential standoff with the government. Against this backdrop, the U.S. and the EU are preparing fresh sanction packages, and the United Kingdom is hinting at expanding its nuclear capability. In the technological realm, all eyes are on the creation of the European Health Data Space (EHDS), which faces both “market‐driven” and staffing obstacles.

EU–US Trade War: Passport by June 10 and Countdown to July 14

Negotiations between the European Union and the United States on lifting mutual tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles began in mid-March 2025, when the Biden administration imposed new duties on European steel exports. Since then, Brussels and Washington have given themselves ninety days to find a compromise—namely, until June 10, 2025. However, according to the European Commission’s own assessments, the chances of reaching an agreement by that date are slim. As the EU’s Trade Commissioner told Euronews, “If the United States does not take tangible steps to ease tariffs, any negotiations will be meaningless.”

During this period, under U.S. pressure, Europe’s steel exports have fallen by 15 percent, and EU automakers have already warned of looming production cuts in both France and Germany. In response to the lack of progress, Brussels has prepared a list of potential countermeasures worth up to €95 billion, which could take effect as of July 14, 2025. According to Associated Press, this list includes possible duties on American airplanes, agricultural products, and alcoholic beverages. To put these dates into context, the final decision on implementing retaliatory tariffs will be taken in early July—and, as representatives of the European Commission have stated, by July 14 “the first wave” of new duties will be in force.

While the EU and the U.S. try on their financial gloves, an “internal monetary battle” brews within the Eurozone—discussed in the section below.

The ECB Paradox: Rate Down, Euro Up

In April 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate from 2.5 percent to 2 percent in an attempt to support rising inflation and stimulate lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Yet the effect was the opposite: over the past four months, from mid-January to mid-May, the euro has appreciated by over 10 percent against the U.S. dollar (from $1.06 to $1.17), significantly complicating export plans for manufacturers. According to Reuters, this creates a dilemma for the ECB: continue cutting rates at the risk of further strengthening the single currency, or intervene in currency markets—an action that could undermine confidence in the bank’s independence.

On May 21, German automaker Volkswagen announced it would reduce production volumes in the United States due to the “inability to compete at the current euro exchange rate.” French agricultural producers also complain of rising costs for raw materials and logistics. Meanwhile, the ECB has admitted that “a stronger euro heightens deflationary risks in the euro area,” yet direct intervention in foreign-exchange markets could set a “dangerous precedent” for the institution’s independence.

As a result, the ECB’s Governing Council has scheduled another meeting on June 12 to discuss additional stabilization tools. In the meantime, investors are increasingly hedging with options, anticipating sharp exchange-rate swings as summer approaches.

Sanctions Rally: Finland Calls for Harsher Measures, EU Prepares New Packages

While Brussels oscillates between tariffs and currency collisions, its northern ally—Finland—has already gone on the offensive toward Russia. On May 27, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo urged tougher sanctions against Moscow due in part to the “ineffectiveness of previous restrictions.” In his words, “Russia has played for time, ignoring acts of aggression on our eastern flank, and today is the time to impose these sanctions.” (Yle Radio Suomi)

According to Anadolu Agency, the European Commission is simultaneously drafting a so-called “Package 7” of restrictions, which will include new duties and export bans in high technology, shipbuilding, and finance. Its publication is expected in the first ten days of June, with entry into force planned for July so that the European Parliament has time to review the details. If approved, this package will include a ban on semiconductor supplies, restrictions on Russian shipping companies, and an expanded list of individuals subject to personal sanctions.

Thus, as talks with the U.S. stall, Europe is preparing a counterpunch that will increase pressure on the Kremlin but inevitably complicate what are already strained relations with Moscow. When Brussels finds itself “caught between two rickshaws,” one with America and the other with Russia, it is instructive to look at what is happening on the EU’s far eastern borders.

Poland: New Presidential Drama and Veto Against Tusk

In the thick of Europe’s battles, attention temporarily shifts to Warsaw: on May 25, Poland held a second-round presidential election in which Karol Navrocki, the right-conservative candidate, secured victory with 52.1 percent of the vote based on 89.7 percent of ballots counted. He represented the Law and Justice party (PiS) and, unlike his predecessor, enjoyed a more comfortable majority—although in the early hours of counting he had trailed his opponent from the Civic Coalition. (The Guardian) 

Constitutional powers of the Polish president allow him to veto laws passed by the Sejm. The new head of state has already announced that he intends to use his veto against bills put forward by Donald Tusk’s government—specifically those relating to judicial reform, education, and social policy. (Reuters) This could create a parliamentary stalemate: although Tusk’s Civic Coalition holds a relative majority in the Sejm, without the president’s consent several key initiatives will be blocked.

Experts point out that such an institutional confrontation could replay the “classic” version of a “two-pillar” struggle: the government enacts reforms while the president stops them, sending the issue to the Constitutional Tribunal. Nevertheless, Navrocki brings experience as the former governor of the Greater Poland Voivodeship, and he has already promised “not to allow outright sabotage.” (Reuters) Even so, tensions in Polish politics remain high: if no compromise is reached by the end of summer, snap elections could be on the horizon.

Digital Healthcare Under the EHDS Banner: Numbers, Personnel, and Compatibility

While Warsaw brandishes its veto and Brussels grapples with tariffs, another battle rages in the corridors of the European Commission—namely, the creation and rollout of the European Health Data Space (EHDS). In April 2025, the Eurasia Metrics Foundation and the European Medical Digital Initiative (EMDI) polled 270 IT and medical executives from 22 EU countries to determine the stage of digitalization. The results were mixed:

• 88 percent reported that their organizations were already participating in EHDS pilot projects.

• 52 percent noted serious compatibility problems between national systems and data exchange across regions.

• 47 percent complained of a shortage of qualified personnel in areas such as cybersecurity and big-data analytics. (Newswire)

As the EHDS project coordinator from Belgium, Andrea Lefèvre, explained, “Most IT units in hospitals and clinics still run on local, outdated servers that cannot integrate data with the national repository. We need to redesign the entire infrastructure, and that will require at least another 18-24 months of investment.” (Black Book Research)

On one hand, creating a unified data space opens opportunities for cross-border telemedicine, joint scientific research, and faster epidemic responses. On the other hand, private clinics and smaller regional hospitals are forced to change their software, retrain staff, and invest in cybersecurity. For instance, in Romania small healthcare facilities are already complaining that competition for informatics medicine specialists has driven salaries up by 20 percent in a single year—and many IT professionals prefer to move to wealthier countries in Western Europe.

Accordingly, whether EHDS will become a global “gold standard” for digital healthcare or a byword for slow bureaucracy is still an open question. Meanwhile, as Europe tackles both intra-corporate and interstate challenges, on the other side of the English Channel the United Kingdom is unfolding its own “military mainstream.”

The United Kingdom: Twelve Nuclear Submarines and Nuclear Modernization

Against Europe’s turmoil, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, announced on May 31, 2025 a major expansion of the country’s nuclear capability: a plan to acquire and build twelve new nuclear-armed submarines, as well as to allocate £15 billion toward modernizing existing nuclear warheads. (The Guardian) This initiative is part of the “Defence Readiness Strategy 2025,” updated after the recent Comprehensive Security, Defence, and Foreign Policy Review.

As the UK Defence Secretary put it, “We must be able to deter any threat, including hybrid and nuclear. Expanding our fleet to twelve submarines will ensure patrols in both oceans, and the £15 billion will cover upgrades to missile systems to meet NATO’s new standards.” The total defense budget for 2025 stands at £85 billion, meaning nearly 18 percent of all funds will go toward nuclear modernization.

Additionally, London expects an upgrade of the “Dreadnought” platform—though that topic warrants a separate investigation. Suffice it to say, the United Kingdom intends to return to the ranks of major military powers, albeit at considerable expense.

June 2025 Is Not Just the Start of Summer, But the Launchpad for New Realignments in Europe and Beyond

• In July, a NATO Summit is scheduled in Brussels, where expanding military presence on the eastern flank is expected to be discussed. At the same time, the U.S. and the EU will decide whether retaliatory tariffs will take effect.

• By the end of summer, “Package 7” of new sanctions against Russia is due for legislative review—and its final composition will shape the situation on Europe’s eastern borders.

• In Poland, tensions between the president and the ruling coalition could trigger snap elections as early as late September if no compromise is found.

• As for EHDS digitalization, the European Commission promises to publish a detailed roadmap by November, outlining costs and timelines for bringing national health repositories into a unified format.

Thus, the European kaleidoscope is only picking up speed—spanning tariffs and sanctions, elections and defense ambitions. In summer 2025, the contours of the new strategic landscape will not necessarily become clearer; however, it is already possible to predict that the EU and its neighbors will balance between economic interests, domestic politics, and global obligations.