First in Line

On July 3, 2025, Russia became the first country in the world to officially recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Amid the restrained silence of other states, Moscow accepted the credentials of the ambassador appointed by the new Islamic regime in Kabul. This step was not only symbolic but also a legal recognition of a power that had previously remained outside diplomatic legitimacy.

China reacted immediately, welcoming Russia’s decision and stating the need for “integrating Afghanistan into the international community” (Barron’s). Thus, Moscow launched a potential chain reaction whose consequences could alter the balance of power in the region.

China’s interest in recognizing Afghanistan is driven not only by geopolitical calculation but also by economic pragmatism. In particular, China seeks to secure access to Afghanistan’s lithium reserves — a strategic metal vital for battery production. According to The Diplomat, the known lithium deposits in Afghanistan are valued in the tens of billions of dollars, and as early as 2023, Chinese companies began negotiations with the Taliban on mining concessions. Afghanistan’s potential inclusion in economic initiatives like the Belt and Road may make China the first major investor in the country since the West’s withdrawal.

Who Are the Taliban: From Religious Schools to the Islamic Emirate

The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist movement that emerged in the mid-1990s following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. The word “Taliban” in Pashto means “students” — most of its early members were students of Islamic schools (madrasas) in Pakistan and Afghanistan (Britannica).

The movement grew out of religious schools in Kandahar, receiving substantial support from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, particularly in the context of the anti-Soviet struggle of the 1980s (Wikipedia).

In 1996, the Taliban seized Kabul and declared the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, ending the existence of the previous secular government. The regime immediately imposed harsh rules: banning education and employment for women, public executions, and the destruction of cultural heritage, including the Buddhas of Bamiyan (DNI.gov).

After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the regime was overthrown by the US and its allies. The Taliban went underground and waged a twenty-year guerrilla war against coalition forces and the Afghan government. However, in August 2021, shortly after the withdrawal of Western troops, the movement regained power and reinstated the former name of the state (CFR).

2021–2025: New Power, Old Methods

Since returning to power in 2021, the Taliban has once again imposed strict restrictions: women were deprived of the right to study, work, and move freely. Girls’ schools were closed, and most women were excluded from public life. Repression intensified against minorities, activists, and journalists (UN News).

The United Nations, in its reports, consistently recorded a worsening humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, systematic human rights violations, and increasing poverty. Despite this, until July 2025, no country in the world officially recognized the Taliban government, although some, including China, the UAE, and Uzbekistan, maintained limited diplomatic relations by appointing ambassadors to Kabul (Reuters).

Why Russia Recognized the Taliban

According to Financial Times and DW, Moscow’s decision was the culmination of a gradual rapprochement with the new regime in Kabul. As early as spring 2025, the Russian side began active consultations, publicly stating its willingness to assist the Taliban in the fight against the regional ISIS affiliate — the Islamic State in Khorasan (Reuters).

In June, Russia officially accepted the ambassador appointed by the Taliban. However, it was the act of receiving credentials on July 3, 2025, that constituted legal recognition — de jure, not just de facto.

The decision is explained by several factors:

• Geopolitical signal to the West: Russia continues its course of undermining Western positions in international institutions, especially after its isolation over the war in Ukraine.

• Regional stability: Russian authorities fear that chaos in Afghanistan may spill over into the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and view the Taliban as “the only real power” in the country.

• Pragmatic diplomacy: As with Syria before, Moscow is betting on a regime that even those who do not recognize it officially are forced to cooperate with.

How Other Countries Responded

The international community’s reaction was mixed.

China, one of the few major players, supported Russia’s decision, calling it “a reasonable step toward stabilizing Afghanistan” and noting the need to “engage Afghanistan in international cooperation” (Barron’s).

Uzbekistan and the UAE, although they have appointed ambassadors to Kabul, have not yet made official statements of recognition. Their diplomacy remains at the level of limited engagement, based on security and trade, but without legal legitimization of the new regime.

Western countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, continue to diplomatically isolate the Taliban. Representatives of these states regularly participate in humanitarian negotiations but do not recognize the legitimacy of the Islamic Emirate.

What the UN, OHCHR and the media say

Systematic UN reports since 2021 have recorded the dire situation in the country. In 2025, the organization stated directly that women and girls in Afghanistan are subjected to institutionalized discrimination that violates international humanitarian law (UN News).

Documented violations include:

• In 2024, more than 23.7 million people required urgent humanitarian assistance, 12.4 million of whom were at risk of starvation. Women and girls suffered most due to bans on education and employment (OHCHR).

• A strict law on “virtue and vice” was introduced, prohibiting women from traveling or using transport without a male guardian. Many were arrested for having uncovered faces or violating dress codes, and subjected to physical violence and threats (HRW).

• UN Special Rapporteur Richard Bennett called the situation “institutionalized discrimination, segregation, and humiliation of human dignity.”

According to UNAMA, the UN mission in Afghanistan, during the 2022–2023 reporting period:

- 274 men, 58 women, and 2 boys were publicly flogged for offenses including adultery, escape, theft, homosexuality, alcohol use, document forgery, and drug-related crimes. Punishments ranged from 30 to 100 lashes (CBS News/UNAMA).

- Female media workers were dismissed, journalists arrested, independent media shut down. Reports documented torture, sexual violence, and ongoing persecution of activists and human rights defenders.

• Between August 2021 and May 2023, 175 death sentences and 37 stonings were issued by Taliban courts. Women were most frequently sentenced to stoning for adultery (OHCHR).

• In April 2025, four men were publicly executed by firing squad in stadiums — the largest single-day execution event since 2021. The Taliban leadership justified the act by Islamic legal norms (RFE/RL).

• Over 300 cases of femicide were recorded from August 2021 to mid-2024, over half allegedly committed by Taliban representatives. Also documented were 840 cases of gender-based violence — including rape, forced marriage, and sexual slavery (The Guardian).

Despite all this, the UN continues its operations in the country through its humanitarian agencies. No body of the organization currently recognizes the Islamic Emirate’s legitimacy.

Conclusion: What This Recognition Means

Russia has opened a new chapter in its relationship with the Taliban, becoming the first country to officially legitimize their authority. This step could have several consequences:

• International legitimization: Following Russia, other countries may follow suit, especially in the region.

• Strengthening Russia’s influence in Central Asia: Recognizing the Taliban may bolster Moscow’s position in regional security negotiations.

• Final polarization of the international order: The recognition of the Taliban is yet another element of geopolitical division between Western democracies and alliances of states that reject the universality of human rights.

The next step may be the erosion of sanctions against the Taliban under the pretext of “pragmatic engagement.” If Beijing, Ankara, or Tehran follow Moscow’s lead, the framework of a new diplomacy will be fully shaped — one defined not by human rights but by territorial control and resource access.

In such a scenario, Afghanistan risks becoming the first officially recognized state of the 21st century in which women are absent from schools, from the streets, and from the law. Russia’s recognition is not just a diplomatic gesture — it is a signal that the world no longer has a universal boundary that automatically strips a regime of legitimacy. That line can now be erased — if it is convenient.

Against this backdrop, the role of the United Nations — long a de facto theater of the absurd, as the author previously wrote — becomes even more surreal with the recognition of a regime built on total discrimination and violence. It offers a fresh litmus test of the shifting priorities of international politics.