Six Zeros Strategy: $142 Billion, Half a Million Chips, and Oil Market Coordination

In spring 2025, relations between the United States and the Gulf states reached a qualitatively new level: unprecedented deals in terms of volume have transformed Washington and the region’s monarchies into strategic partners, simultaneously containing Iran and strengthening technological ties. These agreements not only shape the course of geopolitics but also influence global oil prices, which, in turn, reduce Russia’s revenues and indirectly support Ukraine.

Military Partnership: A Guarantee of Security and Balance

The culmination of this renewed alliance was a $142 billion arms package—the largest military cooperation agreement in U.S. history:

“The package signed today—the largest military cooperation agreement in U.S. history—is a clear demonstration of our commitment to strengthen the partnership,” says the official White House document. (Bloomberg)

The deal includes air- and missile-defense systems, transport aircraft, drones, and expanded space contracts.

• For Saudi Arabia and the UAE—reliable protection against Iranian pressure and secured energy export routes.

• For the U.S.—a strategic presence without deploying ground troops and bolstered support for its defense industry.

Economic and Technological Agreements

A strategic complement to the military alliance consists of major economic and technological pacts:

• Access to advanced AI chips: According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia and the UAE received U.S. permission to import cutting-edge Nvidia and AMD chips for national data centers and AI projects. (Bloomberg)

• Saudi Aramco deals: Saudi Aramco signed preliminary agreements worth up to $90 billion with American energy and tech firms, announced during President Trump’s Middle East tour. (Reuters)

• PIF investments in the U.S.: The Saudi Public Investment Fund committed up to $12 billion with leading U.S. asset managers to diversify its portfolio and strengthen financial ties with Washington. (Reuters)

Oil: The Accidental Impact on Russia’s Finances and Support for Ukraine

In an NPR article, Camila Domonoske recalls that President Trump had promised lower gasoline prices and booming U.S. oil production. She notes that from January to early May 2025, the U.S. benchmark WTI oil price fell from around $80/barrel to just below $60/barrel—a drop of nearly 25%. (NPR)

In a Reuters article, it was suggested that Saudi Arabia’s increase in oil production was viewed as a diplomatic gesture supporting U.S.–Saudi relations ahead of the U.S. president’s visit.

In its May 14 report, OPEC noted that projected non-OPEC+ supply growth was cut from 900 000 to 800 000 barrels per day to stabilize the market after Saudi Arabia’s production surge ahead of the U.S. president’s visit. (Reuters)

A drop in global oil prices directly affects Russia’s revenues, which account for about one-third of the federal budget. According to Reuters, in April 2025 oil and gas export income fell by 12% year-on-year—from ₽1.23 trillion to ₽1.09 trillion. (NV)

“If oil prices remain low, Russia could exhaust its reserve fund within a year,” warned Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute for Transition Economics, highlighting risks to sovereign reserves. (AP)

The Russian Economy Ministry also revised its forecast, cutting expected revenues by 15% to $200.3 billion for 2025. (Global banking and fiance)

“Of course, the international oil price is a very important factor in forming our country’s budget and for the Russian economy as a whole,” stressed Dmitry Peskov at a press briefing. (Reuters)

The revision of oil and gas revenue projections and additional budget spending led the government to forecast a budget deficit of 1.7% of GDP, nearly three times the target of 0.5%. (Reuters)

These financial constraints force Moscow to draw down its reserve fund and cut non-priority expenditures, weakening its ability to sustain military operations—especially in southern and eastern Ukraine.

The strategic partnership between the U.S. and the Gulf states under the Trump administration forms a balanced system of mutually beneficial agreements that combines military support, technological integration, and coordinated energy policy. Together, they:

• Strengthen regional defense and deter Iranian aggression;

• Foster technological and investment growth to diversify the economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE;

• Stabilize and manage global oil prices at lower levels;

Of course, this is not to imply that Trump, in his election campaign pledges, intended to control Russia’s revenues or directly influence the war in Ukraine. Rather, these are the side effects of major shifts in the oil financial markets and coincidental alignments.

As a result, we observe not only enhanced security and economic growth in the Gulf monarchies but also indirect support for Ukraine in its struggle against the aggressor. This cooperation demonstrates how the skillful use of geopolitical and economic tools can benefit all parties involved and create a more predictable and resilient global system.