US refuses to play mediator role

On May 1, 2025, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce announced that the United States would cease participating in peace mediation efforts between Ukraine and Russia. According to Bruce, the responsibility for developing concrete proposals to end the war now lies solely with Kyiv and Moscow. This announcement was reported by numerous media outlets, including The Times.

The statement followed an earlier warning from President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 18, who had signaled that the U.S. might withdraw from the talks if no progress was made. In late April, tensions rose after a meeting in London between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during which the two leaders disagreed over the status of Crimea and potential terms for peace.

Thus, the United States has officially ended its role as mediator, leaving Ukraine and Russia to negotiate directly. This decision marks a significant shift in Washington’s diplomatic strategy and could shape the future course of the conflict.

U.S.–Ukraine Minerals Agreement: A New Model of Support

On April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed an agreement granting the U.S. priority access to Ukraine’s rare earth and other strategic minerals. As part of the deal, a joint investment fund will be created to finance Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. The agreement stipulates equal profit-sharing between the two sides, while Ukraine retains full control over its resources and infrastructure. This was reported by The Guardian.

According to CSIS, the agreement also states that future U.S. military aid to Ukraine will count as contributions to the investment fund and will not require reimbursement for previously delivered assistance. This marks a shift from direct financial aid to a model based on investment and shared revenue.

Simultaneously, the Trump administration approved an initial military aid package for Ukraine worth $50 million. This decision was viewed as a symbolic gesture affirming continued U.S. support for Ukraine.

The agreement sparked mixed reactions. Some critics view it as an attempt by the U.S. to profit from Ukrainian resources in exchange for aid, while supporters argue it provides long-term support and investment in Ukraine’s economy.

Three Years of War: Timeline and Casualties

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. Since then, the war has gone through several phases, including offensives, counteroffensives, and prolonged fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Key Timeline of Events (based on WEFORUM and Reuters):

• February 2022: Russia invades Ukraine from the north, east, and south.

• March 2022: The siege of Mariupol begins; the city is heavily bombarded and blockaded.

• April 2022: Russian forces retreat from Kyiv after a failed offensive.

• September 2022: Ukrainian forces launch a successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv region, reclaiming significant territory.

• November 2022: Ukrainian forces liberate the city of Kherson.

• May 2023: After nine months of fighting, Russian forces capture Bakhmut in what becomes the bloodiest battle in Europe since World War II.

• June 2023: Ukraine launches a new counteroffensive in the south, targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

• August 2024: Ukrainian troops conduct a cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region, briefly occupying territory before withdrawing.

• April 2025: Ukraine reports the recapture of 115 positions, including successful drone strikes on targets inside Russia.

Losses and Casualties

Although official figures are not disclosed by governments, independent conflict-monitoring projects — including WEFORUM and the Institute for the Study of War — provide estimates, which experts often consider to be significantly understated.

As of late April 2025:

• Ukrainian armed forces: approximately 400,000 killed and wounded, including 35,000 missing in action.

• Russian armed forces: over 790,000 killed and wounded, including 48,000 missing.

• Ukrainian civilians: over 12,910 confirmed dead, according to the United Nations.

These figures underscore the enormous human toll and devastation caused by the war.

Conclusion: The End of Mediation Is Not the End of the War

The U.S. decision to withdraw from peace mediation shifts the center of diplomacy toward more fragmented and decentralized formats. Ukraine remains backed by strong but economically conditioned U.S. support, now lacking a direct diplomatic shield in peace talks. Russia, in turn, gains an opportunity to push forward favorable terms in alternative negotiation frameworks — particularly those involving China, with the White House stepping back.

The State Department’s official statement on May 1 coincided with the signing of the rare earth minerals agreement and the launch of a new U.S. military aid package. This creates a unique duality: on the one hand — economic and military support; on the other — diplomatic disengagement. These actions may signal that the U.S. is no longer interested in brokering a compromise but instead is betting on long-term economic strengthening of Ukraine and strategic containment of Russia.

Finally, the global response — from Beijing to Paris — shows that the vacuum left by Washington’s withdrawal will not remain unfilled. However, how it is filled will depend not only on diplomacy. The war continues — on the battlefield, in the economy, and in people’s minds. 

And the end of mediation is just the start of a new chapter, not the end of the story.