Reaction Temperature: Europe Under Pressure from Ideas, Alliances and Gas

Today, the European continent resembles a laboratory setup where reactions are simultaneously taking place in multiple flasks: in one, Spanish criticism of Israel bubbles over; in another, the Polish presidential race boils under Trump’s approving gaze. Meanwhile, Brussels lifts sanctions on Syria, launches trade talks with the Emirates, clashes with the U.S. over digital freedoms, and recalibrates food safety strategies. As the temperature rises and the ingredients mix, the outcome depends on one thing only: precision — or the whole experiment might blow.

In Portugal, the Chega party, which opposes immigration and progressive value imposition, secured the second-largest parliamentary presence following the May 18 elections. This marks the first time in Portuguese history that a far-right party has become the main opposition — reflecting a broader European trend of right-wing populism rising amid dissatisfaction with EU politics, migration, and cultural shifts.

Meanwhile in Poland, the second round of presidential elections has drawn international attention. Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki is facing off against Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Nawrocki’s endorsement by Donald Trump turned the vote into a symbolic clash between progressive Europe and the global right. Analysts warn of rising political polarization in a country already strained in its relationship with Brussels.

In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer sharply criticized economic proposals from Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK. Starmer called the proposals “a mad experiment” that could destabilize the markets and financial system. His remarks come amid an ongoing election campaign where Farage leans heavily into Euroscepticism, tax cuts, and anti-climate agendas.

Within the EU, support for Ukraine remains strong. According to a Eurobarometer poll, 80% of EU citizens support sanctions against Russia and the granting of asylum to Ukrainians. This underscores that, despite war fatigue and internal challenges, the EU maintains consensus on one of its core foreign policy issues.

Simultaneously, the EU Council’s decision on May 20 to lift economic sanctions on Syria sparked a mixed response. The European Commission welcomed the move as a humanitarian gesture aimed at aiding infrastructure recovery and improving civilian conditions. Critics, however, warned it risks legitimizing Assad’s regime and straying from the EU’s previous stance of curbing authoritarianism.

The EU’s economic outlook remains tightly tied to developments in the U.S. After a U.S. court blocked tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, European markets responded positively. Investors saw this as a signal of reduced trade threats, leading to an influx of capital.

Analysts project that European stocks will continue to rise in 2026, fueled by falling interest rates and increased government spending, particularly on green transition programs. However, ongoing global trade tensions remain a key constraint.

On the defense front, the Netherlands made a significant leap forward: the country increased its defense budget to €22 billion, placing it sixth in Europe in terms of military spending. Yet it still falls short of NATO’s 2% GDP target, highlighting how difficult even wealthy members find it to meet alliance obligations.

Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, once again found itself in the spotlight. At the CPAC conference in Budapest, Orbán was lionized by American conservatives. Despite criticism of his authoritarian governing style, Orbán was presented as a leader resisting “liberal hegemony.” His leadership model is being exported as an alternative to Western progressivism.

In the Balkans, energy remains a tool of influence. As reported by Balkan Insight, Serbia remains dependent on Russian gas — a fact that worries Brussels. The EU insists on energy diversification, tying it directly to Serbia’s EU accession path. But Belgrade continues to balance between East and West.

The EU’s foreign policy ambitions are also evident in its new Black Sea strategy, which includes measures to boost economic development, ecological resilience, security, and energy cooperation in a region shaped by the war in Ukraine and Russia’s maritime presence.

In the Middle East, the EU is expanding its economic footprint: it launched trade talks with the UAE to establish a free trade agreement — potentially the first of its kind in the Gulf. The negotiations focus on green energy, digital trade, and critical raw materials. Brussels sees this as an opportunity to reinforce its strategic presence and diversify economic ties.

To improve aid efficiency, the European Commission announced a reform aimed at cutting red tape in external assistance programs. Emphasis is placed on easier access to investments in green hydrogen, digital infrastructure, and healthcare, particularly in Africa and Asia.

Tensions with allies, however, have not abated. In the U.S., officials criticized EU policies on digital content moderation, calling them “Orwellian” and threatening travel bans for EU regulators they accuse of infringing on free speech. The spat has added a new layer of friction to transatlantic relations.

Meanwhile, EU food safety experts identified seven new risks — including novel pathogens and impacts from technological change — which could soon necessitate urgent updates to European food policy and health safeguards.

Finally, Spain made one of the strongest diplomatic moves of the week. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called on the EU to sanction Israel over what he described as an “illegal invasion” of Gaza. His statement exacerbated internal EU tensions, as member states remain divided on their response to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Amid all this, Europe is not just reacting — it is redefining its role in the world. The only question is: will it choose solidarity and openness, or drift toward new internal divisions and hardening borders