Japan clarifies details of mass evacuation from islands off Taiwan

On April 17, 2025, Japanese media continued to release details of the government’s plan to evacuate around 120,000 residents from the southern Ryukyu Islands in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan. Particular attention has been given to logistics: according to The Japan Times, the plan envisions evacuating 20,000 people per day over six days using both maritime and air transport, including the Self-Defense Forces and private ferries.

This initiative gained renewed momentum after the government confirmed the inclusion of three strategically important routes: from Yonaguni Island — the closest to Taiwan — as well as Ishigaki Island and the Miyako archipelago. These areas are located less than 120 km from a potential conflict zone and lie within an area of heightened military activity. Since 2021, Japan has deployed additional missile systems and Self-Defense Force units in the region.

The growing discussion around evacuation comes amid China’s increasingly harsh rhetoric and ongoing military pressure on Taiwan. In recent weeks, the People’s Liberation Army of China has conducted new exercises entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and announced retaliatory measures in response to U.S.-Japan cooperation. As The Guardiannotes, Japan now views a potential conflict as a direct threat to its national security.

In this context, the U.S. position takes on heightened significance. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, allies in the Asia-Pacific region have faced the need to adapt to a less predictable foreign policy course. Despite declarations of increased presence, many fear the White House will focus on domestic matters and trade rivalry with China, weakening its commitment to collective security. As The Guardian reports, Japan and South Korea are responding by strengthening their own defense programs.

Amid strategic uncertainty, the U.S. is still demonstrating consistency in its China deterrence policy. The Department of Defense has announced expanded joint drills with Taiwan and upgrades to its defensive systems. According to an official Pentagon statement, the priority remains “reducing the risk of conflict through the preventive display of readiness.”

Thus, Japan’s stepped-up civilian protection measures and revised evacuation strategies are directly linked to U.S. efforts to bolster deterrence in the region. The two nations are sending complementary signals: Tokyo is mobilizing resources for potential escalation, while Washington is demonstrating its physical presence. In the context of deteriorating U.S.-China relations, this alignment is becoming a central element of the new security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.

One of the key components of Japan’s defense strategy remains Okinawa, which hosts more than half of all U.S. military bases in the country. In the event of military escalation, Okinawa would serve as the main platform for troop deployment and logistics. Japanese officials are already discussing expanding the island’s infrastructure capacity through joint exercises with U.S. forces, underlining the region’s growing importance in military planning.

Japanese authorities have repeatedly emphasized that evacuation is not a panic-driven measure, but a component of a preventive strategy. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani maintains that Japan cannot ignore its geographic proximity to potential instability. This view aligns with a broader trend toward Japan’s “normalization of defense” — in 2024 and 2025, the country has been gradually increasing its military budget, moving closer to the 2% of GDP target.

China, in turn, has reacted harshly to any initiatives that strengthen Taiwan’s defense. In April, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs once again accused the United States of “provoking military conflict” and threatened retaliatory actions.

Thus, by 2025, a new regional reality has emerged: preventive defense, diplomatic confrontation, and media signaling have replaced the old formulas of deterrence. Japan and the U.S. are operating under time pressure, where miscalculation or misunderstanding could escalate into a major crisis far beyond the Taiwan Strait.