G7 in Kananskis: An Illusion of Unity Amid Divisions

In Kananskis (Alberta, Canada) from June 15 to 17, 2025, the 51st G7 summit is being held. For the first time, leaders have abandoned the traditional final communiqué in favor of a brief “Chair’s Statement,” aiming to smooth over public disagreements—above all with the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump (AP News).

The summit’s main priorities include strengthening economic stability, resolving trade disputes, building relations with China, and ensuring energy security in light of a sharp oil-price surge following the escalation of the Israel–Iran conflict. In addition, the summit features a dedicated “Strong and Sovereign Ukraine” working session scheduled for tomorrow, June 17, to address the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

This format creates an illusion of unity but simultaneously places limits on detailed discussion of contentious issues.

With respect to U.S.–China trade wars, your humble correspondent wrote in “Trade Truce in London: China Lifts Rare-Earth Restrictions, U.S. Maintains Tech Sanctions.”

Below, we will examine in detail two of today’s most pressing agenda items: support for Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.

Context: Retrospectives of Conflicts

Russia – Ukraine

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale Russian military operation in February 2022. In May of that year, Russian forces captured Mariupol, yet by autumn 2022 Ukrainian troops had retaken Kharkiv and Kherson. The battle for Bakhmut continued until May 2023. In 2024, Ukrainian forces briefly seized part of Russia’s Kursk region; however, almost all of that territory has since returned to Russian control. 

Fierce fighting continues to this day, despite ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey and mutual exchanges of prisoners and the fallen, as I detailed in my articles.

Israel – Palestine

The confrontation between Iran and Israel has its roots in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent U.S. embassy takeover. Since then, Tehran has expanded its influence by supporting proxy forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas. In 2006, a six-week war broke out in Lebanon, and in 2015 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed—only for the U.S. to withdraw in 2018.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants—who, in effect, governed parts of Palestine—launched a massive attack on southern Israel, killing around 1 200 people and taking roughly 250 hostages, as reported by Reuters. That assault became the catalyst for an escalation of the Gaza war, during which tens of thousands of Palestinians have perished, according to the Gazan Health Ministry.

In April 2024, Iran and Israel engaged in open confrontation for the first time in many years, exchanging hundreds of rockets and drones. After the collapse of the fifth round of talks between Iran and the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear program, on June 13, 2025, Israel attacked struck Iranian nuclear sites and missile factories in Natanz and Tabriz—a development I reported on the same day.

Overview of the G7 Summit

Canada, as host in Kananskis, opted for a brief “Chair’s Statement” instead of a full communiqué to avoid the public rifts witnessed at the 2018 summit, when President Trump declined to endorse the final document (AP News).

According to Reuters, organizers drafted six pre-agreed declarations on migration, artificial intelligence, forest fires, and other issues, with only the Chair’s Statement to follow.

Key discussion topics include the global economy, trade disputes, relations with China, and energy security amid rising oil prices after the Israel–Iran escalation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has again called for increased pressure on Russia—emphasizing that Iran-supplied drones and missiles are used both in Ukraine and in Israel—and warned that without new sanctions a real ceasefire cannot be secured nor energy markets stabilized (Reuters).

Canada and the United Kingdom announced the creation of a joint “UK-Canada Economic and Trade Working Group,” tasked with delivering recommendations within six months to deepen cooperation on critical minerals and AI infrastructure (Reuters).

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged G7 countries to demonstrate unity in confronting the Israel–Iran crisis, stressing the need to curb Iran’s nuclear program and affirm Israel’s right to self-defense (Reuters).

Increased Pressure on Russia

The European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has emphatically called to “step up pressure on Russia” with a new round of sanctions. “We must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war—sanctions are critical to that end,” she said, proposing that the G7 endorse the EU’s already prepared 18th package of restrictions (Reuters).

Meanwhile, the U.S. Vice President and other allies have voiced concern that excessive pressure could complicate diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire. In my view, the EU’s determination to act “through strength” demonstrates its resolve, but it remains uncertain whether the entire G7 can be unified given Washington’s reservations.

The Middle East Front: Iran – Israel

Oil Price Surge

In my Covalent Bond article, I noted that the recent spike in oil prices reflects energy security’s transformation into a geopolitical lever. Against the backdrop of Tehran’s retaliatory threats, Brent briefly rose to $78.50 per barrel, and WTI climbed to $77.62 in a single session.

Possible Sanctions on Tehran

The draft Chair’s Statement includes tougher measures against Iran for supporting Shiite militias and attacks on Israel. However, the U.S. administration under President Trump remains cautious and is not yet ready for new restrictions.

Escalation Risks and Energy Security

G7 leaders expressed concern that further strikes on military, civilian, or energy infrastructure could cause prolonged supply disruptions and new price spikes (Reuters).

Geopolitical Splits and “Trumpism”

President Donald Trump again emphasized U.S. national interests over collective G7 decisions, refusing to cut tariffs and casting doubt on new sanctions. According to Reuters, in a call with President Putin Trump suggested that Russia could mediate the Iran crisis—an idea that alarmed European allies given Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine.

The U.S. reluctance to fully join the sanctions and tariff concessions complicates the preparation of a unified Chair’s Statement. Several EU leaders have even considered issuing a directive-style document without the U.S. to bypass transatlantic disagreements and preserve consensus within the G7.

Conclusions and Prospects

The current U.S. administration’s stance shows that, under such conditions, the G7 risks losing its status as an effective collective response mechanism to global crises.

Differences over sanctions on Russia, caution on the Iran issue, and commercial disputes with China reveal a deeper split between hard-liners and pragmatists. If tougher measures on Ukraine and new restrictions on Tehran remain mere declarations, while economic and trade ties with China take precedence, the “Big Seven” risks becoming a forum for rhetoric rather than real solutions.

Against this backdrop, the Chair’s Statement format saves the summit’s face but does not change its substance: without a willingness to make mutual concessions and clear coordination, the G7 is unlikely to contain either aggressors or market shocks.