Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: A Test of Strength in the Age of Divide and Conquer

From May 31 to June 1, Singapore’s annual Asia Security Summit—better known as the Shangri-La Dialogue — will, for the first time under President Donald Trump’s new administration, host defence chiefs from the United States, France, and other nations. The forum’s main topics include the ongoing war in Ukraine, the crisis in the South China Sea, and escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. U.S. 

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will unveil strategies to counter China and introduce new digital security measures (Reuters); French President Emmanuel Macron will promise the EU’s role as a “reliable partner” for ASEAN (FT); and New Zealand will focus on cyber and space threats (Mirage News).

Since 2002, the Shangri-La Dialogue has been organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) at the Shangri-La Marina Bay hotel. The format includes public keynote addresses, five plenary sessions, and break-out groups for off-the-record negotiations. Over the years, the forum has hosted landmark decisions such as the creation of AUKUS in 2022, discussions on the Indo-Pacific Security Partnership in 2021, and the first principles of supply chain cyber defence in 2023.

While the summit’s format remains unchanged, the political landscape in 2025 is very different. First, the Trump administration has accelerated deployment of the $175 billion “Golden Dome” space shield, a move that critics warn could trigger a new space race. Second, China chose not to send Defence Minister Dong Jun to the summit: given the intensified trade and tariff disputes with Washington, Beijing predictably signalled its preference to distance itself from public debates amid unresolved economic disagreements (FT).

“Delegates are eager to hear Secretary Hegseth reaffirm America’s commitment to regional security despite trade frictions and internal debates,” notes Ian Storey of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute (Reuters).

This year’s forum highlights several trends. Macron’s address outlines a package of bilateral defence, aviation, and energy agreements designed to fill any strategic void left by the U.S. (FT). Meanwhile, New Zealand’s defence and digital development minister underscores the shift of modern threats into the cyber and space domains (Mirage News).

The South China Sea remains a flashpoint: China is expanding its maritime activity and platform construction, while the U.S., Japan, and Australia intensify joint exercises. On the Korean Peninsula, tensions persist after artillery exchanges and North Korea’s demonstrations of nuclear capability.

Taken together, these factors risk transforming the summit from a multipolar gathering into a series of bilateral meetings. Trade frictions and the unpredictability of Trump’s administration may undermine the collective format, driving ASEAN countries to pursue direct talks with each major power and creating fertile ground for China’s “divide and rule” strategy.

However, if the EU and U.S. manage to coordinate their strategies and propose joint security and development initiatives, the multilateral format could still prevail. Otherwise, the region risks evolving into a “bilateral world,” where each power acts solely in its own interest.

The Shangri-La Dialogue 2025 will be a stress test for the resilience of alliances and a rehearsal for new approaches to defence diplomacy. For two days, Singapore will become the arena for strategic battles over the Indo-Pacific’s future.